We are less than two weeks away from the reveal of the 2026 MIAA state tournament brackets.
That means all eyes are gradually turning towards the MIAA's power rankings, which last came out on Tuesday.
Already, Tuesday's update looks slightly outdated following some notable results from the previous night. But at this point, we have a rough idea of what the postseason will look like. Not much will change outside of teams moving up or down in the seeding projections a couple of spots. However, those minor movements can have a major impact on the championship picture.
What matters most in the power rankings as we prepare for the state tournament? Here's what I'll be watching for on the girls side.
Top 20 overall teams
Because the formula for the MIAA power rankings doesn't add weight for divisions or conferences, in theory, we can compare the overall ratings of every team across the state. Here are the top 20 teams in the state, according to their overall ratings:
1. Whitman-Hanson (Div. 2) — 12.3288
2. Springfield Central (Div. 1) — 12.0309
3. Bishop Feehan (Div. 1) — 11.7924
4. St. Mary's (Div. 2) — 11.3005
5. Foxboro (Div. 2) — 10.9701
6. Medfield (Div. 2) — 10.5416
7. Wachusett (Div. 1) — 10.1830
8. Walpole (Div. 2) — 10.1720
9. Minnechaug (Div. 2) — 10.1710
10. North Quincy (Div. 2) — 10.1614
11. Worcester South (Div. 1) — 9.8742
12. Woburn (Div. 1) — 9.7894
13. Bishop Fenwick (Div. 3) — 9.7200
14. Andover (Div. 1) — 9.4693
15. Norwood (Div. 2) — 9.4411
16. Duxbury (Div. 2) — 9.3373
17. Pittsfield (Div. 3) — 9.3256
18. Pembroke (Div. 3) — 9.2044
19. Billerica (Div. 1) — 9.0984
20. Apponequet (Div. 3) — 9.0331
This lines up fairly closely with how I view the state hierarchy. In fact, 10 of the top 11 teams here appear in our Top 10, and that's without me putting stock in overall ratings when I rank. It's also worth noting that seven of the top 10 teams come from Division 2. The total breakdown in this top 20 includes nine schools from Div. 2, seven from Div. 1 and four from Div. 3.
Division 2 will have some fireworks
In our Monday MIAA Top 10 update, Medfield was a projected No. 5 seed in the Division 2 power rankings. We'll expand on this more shortly, but getting a No. 4 vs. No. 5 seed might be the most important swing spot in the entire playoff bracket. As of the last power rankings update, Medfield is up at No. 4, and I think it should hold that spot with high-level opponents coming up. But that's not a given.
As mentioned, seven Div. 2 teams make up the top 10 overall schools, and you can expand it to nine of the top 16. It overshadows some pretty dangerous projected double-digit seeds. Oliver Ames, North Attleboro and Mansfield are each talented in the Hockomock League. Archbishop Williams and Arlington Catholic are battle-tested from the Catholic Central League. You could even go down to projected 24-seed Milton as someone who beat Needham, a top Division 1 team.
I actually don't know how many upsets we'll get because the top of Div. 2 is so stacked. But these early-round games will be higher-level than usual, and the late-round matchups will be must-watch almost across the board. This is one of the best brackets I can remember in the statewide tournament era.
Does winning or conference mettle matter in Div. 1?
Springfield Central, Bishop Feehan, Wachusett and Worcester South are the pretty clear four frontrunners in Div. 1. Beyond them are clusters of programs from large conferences that took them in different pathways.
Woburn is undefeated and a projected No. 5 seed, but if you look at the top 20 projected seeds, its opponent/strength of schedule rating would rank 19th. Right behind are the MVC's top two programs. Andover and Billerica have scarcely lost all season but have also been mostly confined to the Merrimack Valley Conference. Projected 11-seed Natick rolled past Andover in the Commonwealth Motors Christmas Classic during holiday break.
Do we believe in more dominant programs like Woburn, Andover and Billerica? Or will deeper leagues prepare teams like Natick, Needham and Braintree in the Bay State Conference (or Quincy in the Patriot League) better?
Tracking the No. 4 vs. No. 5 seed races
As stated earlier, there might be no difference of greater importance (besides being in or out of the postseason) than being a No. 4 seed vs. a No. 5 seed. All top-four seeds get to host every game up to the state semifinals, when games transition to neutral sites. A 5-seed would be the best team that still has to travel for the quarterfinals.
In Division 1, Worcester South (9.8742 rating) holds a slim lead over Woburn (9.7894) and Andover (9.4693). I expect this to come down to the former two schools. Both have tough games on the schedule to factor into their ratings; South just lost to Springfield Central and Woburn plays in the Comcast Tournament. Hosting this possible quarterfinal game would be huge. I expect, should these teams meet, for the score to be as low as realistically possible. These are two of the state's best defenses.
Div. 2, again, has unbeaten Medfield (10.5416) in the No. 4 spot with both Walpole (10.1720) and Minnechaug (10.1710) neck and neck on the outside. I predict Medfield will hold this spot, but it's not a lock. Minnechaug nabbing it would be a game-changer for travel's sake.
Apponequet (9.0331) leads slightly over Medway (8.5090) in Div. 3, and they're likely the lone two teams battling in the swing positions. South Hadley (5.2092) should have at least a No. 4 seed locked up against Southwick (4.3618) in Div. 4. And lastly, I think unbeaten Douglas (3.6547) is safe for a Div. 5 top-four seed against Lee (2.1410).
A dangerous sleeper in each division
We won't call these "upset picks" quite yet because the postseason matchups remain undetermined. But if I'm a high seed, I'd be on alert running into these schools early in a state tournament run.
Division 1: Newton North (now 8-10) is a projected No. 20 seed as of Tuesday morning. The Tigers have shown they can hang with and beat some of the top teams in the Bay State Conference. They took down Natick, 67-63, behind 27 points from MIT commit Nikki Rao. The Tigers only lost to Braintree by three points and Needham by seven — but they've also been quite inconsistent and got swept by Acton-Boxboro (another interesting sleeper). If they show up as the best version of themselves, they can compete with a lot of better seeds.
Division 2: Arlington Catholic, a projected No. 15 seed as of Tuesday, is 15-5. The losses all came vs. Catholic Central League foes: Bishop Fenwick, Bishop Feehan, Archbishop Williams (series split) and St. Mary's (twice). With a balanced squad that includes Brandeis-bound Nora Simpson, Arlington Catholic is 7-2 in its last nine games with an important rivalry matchup next Monday against Arlington.
Division 3:Â Cathedral is an extremely dangerous projected No. 9 seed right now. Winners of the last three Div. 4 titles, the Panthers just lost 55-48 last week to current top-seed Bishop Fenwick. They're 9-7 and have been mired in close CCL losses, but they've also dominated against other quality teams like East Bridgewater and Westwood. Keyona Raines is one of the elite two-way point guards in the state.
Division 4:Â Sutton, a projected No. 11 seed, wields one of the division's top talents in junior forward Ava Carroll. The Suzies have been up-and-down this winter, but their big wins include splitting with projected 3-seed Millbury and sweeping Northbridge.
Division 5:Â Two-time defending champion Hoosac Valley is currently a No. 10 seed with an underwhelming 6-12 record. I don't know if the Hurricanes will be able to overcome this transition season and go super far, but they've played some of the top seeds close. They lost by nine in the most recent matchup against Drury and split the season series with Lee.
