We're in the home stretch of the NEPSAC girls basketball season, and the playoff picture has started coming into focus.
The NEPSGBCA is releasing weekly regular updates of the standings for classes AA through C. The playoff formula is complicated, so these updates help us check in on who's in the race for the postseason.
Here is the most recent update from Tuesday. But as stated in the Tweet, the seeding ratings and positioning will constantly change. We have marquee NEPSAC games still to watch right up through Feb. 28 before brackets get released.
Here are five big-picture thoughts I have as we close out the regular season.
Is anything different about the Class AA playoff picture this year?
Well... kind of.
We're getting last year's four semifinalists as this year's top four seeds. Darrow is currently the No. 1 projected seed, but it gets overlooked that the Ducks made somewhat of a surprise runner-up run as a No. 5 seed last season after beating Newman (now in AAA) and Northfield Mount Hermon on the road. This is an even better team. Otherwise, Wilbraham & Monson, Worcester Academy and Northfield Mount Hermon remain legitimate title contenders.
It's hard to visualize a different semifinal four. I'm also unsure if Class AA will even fill its full eight-team playoff bracket after only six teams were eligible for the postseason last year.
Could a young team take a leap in Class A?
Loomis Chaffee, having won six of its last eight games, is recapturing its place as a favorite to possibly five-peat. Sacred Heart remains a title frontrunner as well, and Kent consistently plays top teams well. Those are the first three projected seeds right now, but after them are some fun young teams on the rise.
I look at Milton Academy, who beat Loomis at the Nickerson Showcase with an underclassmen-heavy roster. Phillips Andover is 13-7; I just watched them roll past a shorthanded Austin Prep squad on the road. Andover only rosters one senior and leans on several underclassmen. Taft, which has four seniors but also some promising junior and sophomores, is better than its 6-8 record. The Rhinos recently beat Sacred Heart and Choate, and only lost to Loomis Chaffee by four points.
The playoff field is likely set with those teams plus Thayer and Choate, with Phillips Exeter on the outside looking in right now. But the gap between the top teams feels smaller than in the past. If a young can team can heat up at the right time, I wouldn't be shocked to see a surprise finalist.
Less parity than expected in the Class Bs
Last winter's Class B playoff bracket was madness, with 3-seed Rivers beating 5-seed St. Luke's in the championship. Now it's split into B Large and B Small, and I think both of those postseasons will be relatively tame.
In B Large, St. George's leads the standings with its only two losses coming against AAA programs. I can't say enough how impressive a job Maddie Bledsoe has done with this roster in her first year as head coach. Right behind the Dragons is Suffield, the last undefeated team in NEPSAC. The Tigers have the most star power in B Large and should be more focused after losing to St. George's in an 8-1-seed upset last season.
B Large is still deep. Governor's, Lawrence Academy and Berkshire round out the top five in the standings as of Tuesday and have played the top two teams closely. The playoff race will still be a battle. As of the latest update, Brooks, St. Luke's and Rivers hold the final three seeds, with St. Mark's, Proctor and Greens Farms on the outside. But I don't think the championship contender tier is as wide.
The same goes in B Small, where the same three schools we've discussed all winter — Kimball Union, Ethel Walker and Hamden Hall — pace the standings. It's hard to envision another program beating multiple of these two en route to a title. But those three are evenly-matched. Cushing, Mount St. Charles and Kingswood-Oxford should hold on and make the playoffs. Holderness and Brewster hold a slim edge in the standings over Montrose, the first team projected to miss out.
How will Class AAA seed its teams?
Class AAA is the only division in NEPSAC that does not adhere to the formula for postseason seeding. All eight teams make the postseason and seeding is entirely selected by committee. Good luck to those folks because these teams are so hard to separate.
The top six teams in our Top 10 are from Class AAA, and if you think back to a healthier Dexter Southfield squad, the seven best teams in all of NEPSAC are probably AAA schools. But none are undefeated and there are still several key head-to-head games coming in the final two-plus weeks. Add in the significant travel distance between, say, Hoosac, Tabor or Tilton, and home court advantage is a huge factor before Super Sunday.
This is the only class where we're flying pretty blind for projections, making it an even more highly-anticipated bracket.
A sleeper team in each class
We're still too far away to think about individual matchups and upset picks. But with a rough understanding of the playoff hierarchy, here are some dangerous, potentially lower-seeded teams. I am skipping Class C because the eligibility criteria and volume of schools combined make it a very difficult class to forecast.
AAA — If Dexter Southfield heals up in time for the playoffs, this is a roster that has already proven it can beat some of the best in Class AAA. Dexter took down Tabor by a point, dominated one game against Nobles and went to the wire against New Hampton. It remains to be seen what the playoff rotation looks like.
AA — It will be very hard to beat the top four seeds. Marianapolis (12-7), on pace for No. 5, has the best shot. The Golden Knights nearly pulled out a win against Worcester Academy and have beaten multiple solid teams in other classes. They play an up-tempo style and move the ball well, and several different players are capable of popping off on a given day. Marianapolis dropped 100 points in a win against MacDuffie, signaling the offensive ceiling.
A — As mentioned above, Taft (a projected No. 7 seed) has been very inconsistent in its 6-9 start but seems to be playing some of its best basketball lately. The Rhinos were tied at 38 with Ethel Walker on Wednesday before Walker's ended on a 15-0 run. Maddy Little, a Longwood commit, is one of the more underrated Div. 1-bound talents in this class. Taft also has a few capable perimeter shooters led by Sara Santimaw.
B Large — I haven't given nearly enough credit to the recent run Brooks (12-6) has put together. They've won six straight, including the most recent 33-point rout of Governor's. Dating back to an overtime win at the Nickerson Showcase against Hamden Hall, Brooks has nabbed 10 straight wins against non-AAA foes. This is a good defensive squad with a reliable senior duo in Summer Warren and Jules Giordano. Brooks is a projected No. 6 seed playing like a much better team.
B Small — Projected 5-seed Mount St. Charles (10-6) has a fun backcourt that includes seniors Jaizzy Santiago and Addie Johnson as well as sophomore Ava Ayotte. They've scored wins against Class AAA St. Andrew's, Class AA MacDuffie and solid Class B programs like St. Mark's and Proctor. It's tough to picture any of the top three seeds falling in B Small, but Mount St. Charles can compete and get hot behind the 3-point arc.
