The teams in NEPSAC girls Class AAA have given me a Herculean task: pick a winner.
This is the most parity we’ve seen at the top of NEPSAC in several years. With Darrow, last winter’s AA champion, jumping in as a new member, it feels like all eight teams can say they’re contenders.
I’ve spent the fall attending open gyms, calling coaches and checking rosters to try and glean a clear picture of the hierarchy. But now November is here, games (for a select few schools) are only a few weeks away, and it’s time to start turning in my guesses.
I’ll be posting playoff projections for NEPSAC classes AAA through B Small throughout the next few weeks. We start with AAA, where all eight teams make the postseason (so at least that part of my job is easy).
Below are my championship predictions. I’ve also mock-seeded each team in Class AAA. Unlike other class projections, which will define successful seasons for each playoff team, here I’ve outlined the path for each AAA school to win a title.
Championship prediction
The pick: Nobles
Runner-up: Dexter Southfield
Dark horse:Â Newman
Though I truly believe every AAA team has a shot at the title, these three rosters are the deepest of the field. Nobles just doesn’t have major weaknesses on paper. The Bulldogs are multiple players deep in every major positional group, they have star power, and their awesome 2029 class will help fill out the rotation. Plus, Alex Gallagher has far more championship coaching experience than the other two contenders here.
But if you’re a Newman fan, you should love this. My dark-horse title pick has won AAA in both years of my championship predictions. I’m also two-for-two on runner-up picks. But this year in AAA is much, much harder to forecast than the last two seasons.
Projected playoff seeds
1. Nobles
Path to a championship: The Bulldogs put together a dominant defense aided by physicality and switchability. Alannah Morantus (North Attleboro, Mass.) fully arrives as one of NEPSAC’s best lead guards. She, Naya Annigeri (Medfield, Mass.) and Aliyah Allston-Pujols (Randolph, Mass.) mesh with their complementary skills in the backcourt, and the 2029 class of depth players all find their roles.
Biggest questions: Will there be enough three-point shooting on this team? Which 2029 players are actually ready to be consistent contributors over a grueling AAA schedule? How does Izzy Kittredge (Medfield, Mass.) fare against the tough opposing centers in this class?
READ MORE: Here’s our full Nobles team preview
2. Dexter Southfield
Path to a championship:Â Ella Peper (Newton, Mass.) levels up again and becomes NEPSAC’s clear top player. Avery Bollin (Raynham, Mass.) shows she can thrive against some of AAA’s elite opposing centers. Dexter’s wing depth provides a significant advantage and they allow the squad to spread scoring around and play fast. Guards like Maeve Powers (Quincy, Mass.) and Xzyla Simpson (Mattapan, Mass.) step up as facilitators.
Biggest questions:Â What kind of culture can first-year head coach Kianna Ray build after the last two coaches didn’t stick? How well does the ball move and who is primarily setting the table? Dexter Southfield may have the most talented top 11 in AAA, but does everyone clearly understand expectations and role?
READ MORE:Â Here’s our full Dexter Southfield team preview
3. Newman
Path to a championship:Â Ayla Keefe becomes a more decisive scorer and Gabby Middleton (Stoughton, Mass.) takes a step forward as a lead guard playmaker to create a balanced, humming offense. Hillary Simo backs up her new national ranking by emerging as a dominant paint presence. Top 2029 prospect Melody Vaughn’s deep-range shooting opens up the floor for the rest of the team. Newman possesses so much depth that it can keep players rested and healthy during the regular season. By March, the Cardinals are fresh and solidified in their roles.
Biggest questions:Â What are the Cardinals willing to sacrifice? Newman’s transfer haul includes several players who were starters and high-usage members of their previous schools. Will they be OK with fewer shots and fewer minutes? What does Newman’s crunch-time offense look like, and who’s involved?
READ MORE:Â Here’s our full Newman team preview
4. Tilton
Path to a championship:Â Bella Owumi (Lynn, Mass.) dominates on both ends of the floor in her second NEPSAC season and wins Player of the Year. Ava Bryant blocks more shots than anyone else and becomes a reliable paint scorer. The addition of Celia Neilson (Georgetown, Mass.) gives opposing lead guards fits. Tilton finds secondary scoring with Kam Derba (Easton, Mass.) and 2029 top prospects Giuliana Shepard (Easton, Mass.) and Avery Terry (Acton, Mass.).
Biggest questions:Â Who can the Rams rely on to create advantages outside of Owumi? That could be Neilson, but are Shepard, Terry or Lily Norton (Marblehead, Mass.) able to help in that regard? Tilton should have a top-tier defense. What is the ceiling of this offense?
READ MORE:Â Here’s our full Tilton team preview
5. Hoosac
Path to a championship: We get a Player of the Year repeat from Anna Moser, who eviscerates NEPSAC in her senior season. Hoosac adapts to a faster play style than past years and twins Sofia and Giada Lanni slot in as quality secondary scorers. There’s still physicality in the frontcourt with new forward Akarri Gaddy and returner Teagan Keane. Hoosac now knows how to win a championship, and coach Julie McBride uses another season of underdog status to hold onto the crown.
Biggest questions: What does Hoosac’s new rotation actually look like? Are Gaddy and Keane ready to face the brunt of opponents’ talented frontcourts? Can Hoosac play faster and make teams pay for focusing on Moser? What surprise impact players are on this roster, much like last year?
READ MORE:Â Here’s our full Hoosac team preview
6. Tabor
Path to a championship: Corinne Lomax (Watertown, Conn.) overpowers the opposition again and improves her 3-point shot. Lily Davis (Waterford, Conn.) takes another leap into a well-rounded lead guard as a junior. Lauren Fitzgerald (North Attleboro, Mass.) makes her case as an elite wing defender and also improves behind the arc. Tabor’s underrated transfer group turns heads and allows the team to play fast and spray the ball around.
Biggest questions:Â How many reliable shooters are on this roster? After graduating so many guards and perimeter threats, can Tabor replace their impact or will the play style need to change? Who’s defending post players and how do they hold up? Who among the young guard newcomers is ready to make a consistent impact?
READ MORE:Â Here’s our full Tabor team preview
7. New Hampton
Path to a championship:Â Saige DeJesus (Brockton, Mass.) confidently steps into a lead guard role and shines. DeJesus has seniors Ava Perry (Groveland, Mass.) and Casey Stores (Bellingham, Mass.) beside her, and those two dig in as defenders and secondary passers. Bedford, N.H., transfers Mel McCarthy and Eva Zink use their versatile games to become frontcourt mismatches. Shannon O’Leary (Marshfield, Mass.) grows her confidence as a stretch forward.
Biggest questions:Â What tough lessons will DeJesus have to learn while getting the most defensive attention from opposing guards? How seamless will the NEPSAC transition be for McCarthy and Zink? Is New Hampton deep enough to match some of the other AAA rotations? Who steps up off the bench?
READ MORE:Â Here’s our full New Hampton team preview
8. Darrow
Path to a championship:Â Actually, instead of everyone else we’ve said, it’s Oregon State commit Daniella Harcourt who proves she’s the most forceful center in AAA, aided by the addition of Malia Jackson next to her. Those two, along with a strong collection of fast, pesky guards, make Darrow frustrating and hard to contain with a balanced rotation. Young, highly-touted transfers acclimate well and new coach Jelani Williams has a clear vision for his system and culture.
Biggest questions:Â Can the small guards score on the rest of NEPSAC’s defensive backcourts? Is Harcourt ready to face similar-sized matchups on most gamedays? Darrow only has four returners healthy; how long will it take to build chemistry under a new head coach? Which of the many high-profile newcomers are Year 1 impact players?
READ MORE:Â Here’s our full Darrow team preview
