It's time to put our prep school ball knowledge to the test.
We'll be predicting the results of each round of the NEPSAC tournament for classes AAA through B. That starts with the quarterfinals, which take place Wednesday for all teams.
You'd think the quarterfinals would be easier to predict in theory — but a good four or five matchups are dead heats in my eyes. That includes a rubber match in Class AAA, two great rematches in AA, and a conundrum throughout Class B.
The bulletin board material is below. I'll be tuning into live streams of several quarterfinal matchups Wednesday and can't wait to see the action play out.
Video: Ethan and Steve analyze the brackets
Class AAA
PLAYOFF PREVIEW:Â Breaking down each team in the Class AAA tournament
No. 2 Tabor vs. No. 7 St. Andrew's
Tabor and St. Andrew's have faced off twice in February, and the Seawolves won both matchups, 76-34 and 73-51.
St. Andrew's again has a tall task trying to contain the Seawolves' fast-paced attack and volume of offensive weapons. Tabor might not be as big in the paint, but Olivia Rodrigues and Ava Black can overcome height differences with their physicality, and Kaelyn Carroll has length and 6-foot-3 size to assist from the wing. The Big Three is also a matchup problem for St. Andrew's with their respective abilities to handle the ball and drive past (or through) the defense. Tabor should be considered a heavy favorite.
Prediction: Tabor 72, St. Andrew's 55
No. 3 Tilton vs. No. 6 Dexter Southfield
Tilton swept the regular season series, winning 73-60 on Jan. 18 and 47-36 on Feb. 8. Though these were competitive matchups, it's hard to picture Dexter flipping the script so significantly.
Tilton's defense feels impenetrable; the Rams haven't let an opponent reach 60 points against them since Jan. 31. Dexter has solid offensive weapons like Izzy Adams and freshman phenom Ella Peper, but no one who can consistently force Tilton's defense to break down. They've also been hampered by inconsistency, partially due to a young roster and partially due to nagging injuries. I think Dexter Southfield has big things coming — just not this week against this team.
Prediction: Tilton 64, Dexter Southfield 49
No. 4 Hoosac vs. No. 5 New Hampton
This is the best quarterfinal in Class AAA and a contender for the best overall NEPSAC quarterfinal. Hoosac and New Hampton played twice in a five-day span, with each team winning at home between Jan. 25 and Jan. 29. The game will take place at Vermont Academy (Update: this is a change from the previous location at St. Paul's School).
I'm going to slightly favor Hoosac's larger arsenal of size, versatility and playmaking. They're just a physically bigger team and their forwards can cut, rebound and space the floor well. Anna Moser will require constant defensive attention with how she flies around off-ball screens; and point guard Carolina Williams is a senior leader who routinely steps up in big moments.
So is New Hampton's Elyse Ngenda. Her poised decision-making could be the difference in an elimination game. And Serenity Lancaster could be motivated by the frontcourt challenge and dominate inside. This is very much a toss-up, but good luck to the victor, who would take on top-seeded Nobles in the next round.
Prediction: Hoosac 53, New Hampton 49
KEEP TRACK:Â Follow the latest results and schedule updates in Class AAA
Class AA
PLAYOFF PREVIEW:Â Breaking down each team in the Class AA tournament
No. 3 Wilbraham and Monson vs. No. 6 Austin Prep
The winner of this game faces second-seeded Worcester Academy in the semifinals. I'm betting on the Titans to flip an earlier result I saw in-person: their Jan. 15, 60-55 road defeat at Austin Prep.
It's a big ask, but WMA has home court this time. Austin Prep deserves credit for its strong first half in the victory; the Titans also played poorly in my eyes, lacking intensity on defense and taking too long to settle into comfortable offensive flow. Star center Caterina Ravosa still dominated with 27 points. I expect a more involved effort from Selah Prignano and several of the younger rotation players.
Angel Efosa was aggressive in the first meeting en route to 19 points for Austin Prep. This is also round two of one of the best center matchups you'll find, with Ravosa taking on Fope Ayo. Austin Prep definitely can win, but I like the Titans to bounce back.
Prediction: WMA 68, Austin Prep 60
No. 4 Newman vs. No. 5 Darrow
This is another fantastic quarterfinal contest to circle. In their first years as overhauled AA programs, both Darrow and Newman have blown me away as they've excelled against some of the region's best.
I caught the first head-to-head, a 57-47 Newman home win back on Jan. 12. But things have changed since, and Darrow actually won the most recent matchup, 62-53, this past Saturday. The Ducks enter the tournament with serious momentum. I'm a big believer in their defense, which has size in the frontcourt and physicality throughout the lineup. Amanda Smith and Jill Dingler are frequent scoring leaders, but it was Jayla Hughley (16 points, four assists) who stepped up in that win. It gives me more confidence that Darrow has multiple weapons and can churn out enough offense. Whoever wins hits the road to face top-seeded Northfield Mount Hermon in the semis.
Prediction: Darrow 57, Newman 52
KEEP TRACK:Â Follow the latest results and schedule updates in Class AA
Class A
PLAYOFF PREVIEW:Â Breaking down each team in the Class A tournament
No. 1 Loomis Chaffee vs. No. 8 Phillips Andover
Frankly, I don't see Phillips Andover having much of a chance here. Loomis Chaffee doubled up the score in an 80-40 win Dec. 14. The Pelicans have too much size at all positions and Andover doesn't have the playmakers to crack Loomis' hallowed defense. Loomis is the heavy favorite to four-peat in Class A for a reason.
Prediction: Loomis Chaffee 65, Phillips Andover 38
No. 2 Sacred Heart vs. No. 7 Milton Academy
Sacred Heart's guard and wing leaders prove too much here. Eva Wilkerson, as a 5-foot-10 combo guard, has a chance to post one of her eyebrow-raising double-doubles against the Mustangs' smaller backcourt. Lucianna Parrotta, a 6-foot 2027 wing, also has an advantageous matchup here. I like Milton Academy's direction as a program, but Sacred Heart is proven and ready to win now.
Prediction: Sacred Heart 58, Milton Academy 39
No. 3 Kent vs. No. 6 Choate
These teams just faced off a week ago, with Kent earning a 51-41 road win.
Kent has built its season to date on strong defense, allowing more than 55 points just twice all season. That's even with just nine girls on the roster and only two 6-foot players. Celeste Harper and Morgan Johnson have done a great job on both ends in the backcourt. Kent matches up well against a quality Choate team, but one lacking game-changing size and scoring.
Prediction: Kent 54, Choate 40
No. 4 Hotchkiss vs. No. 5 Thayer
It's possible that Hotchkiss is the second-best Class A team. I think they're better than the seeding shows, and their star power with Kaila Richards and Morgan Jenkins is rivaled only by dominant Loomis. Jenkins in particular could pose a frontcourt matchup problem at 6-foot-2. I wouldn't be surprised to see another massive double-double line from her after this game.
Prediction: Hotchkiss 62, Thayer 47
KEEP TRACK:Â Follow the latest results and schedule updates in Class A
Class B
PLAYOFF PREVIEW:Â Breaking down each team in the Class B tournament
No. 1 Suffield vs. No. 8 St. George's
This is such a difficult game to pick. It challenges what you believe in from a playoff team philosophically. Do you trust a Suffield squad led by youth, pace and athleticism? Or the reigning champion Dragons, loaded with size and experience — but a first-year head coach and more peaks and valleys in their record? Get the 1-versus-8 seed framing out of your mind, because this is an evenly-matched bout.
I look at some less heralded players as X-factors. Can Suffield's Skylar Fiske make life difficult for St. George's larger forwards? On the other side, can Aleah Bracey add a scoring punch to lift the Dragons to an "upset" and advance? I'm taking a cop-out and sticking with home court advantage here, but I'll definitely be tuning into this live stream.
Prediction: Suffield 64, St. George's 62
No. 2 Berkshire vs. No. 7 Beaver
Both programs have flown under the radar for a while, but they're talented, especially in the backcourt. I shouted out Chloe Egan on Berkshire and Juice Coston on Beaver in our team previews, and I think they'll be swing players for their respective teams. But this ultimately comes down to 6-foot-4 center Pearl Dickson. If she can stamp her presence on the game with rebounds and an aggressive scoring mindset, the Bears should decisively move on.
Prediction: Berkshire 62, Beaver 52
No. 3 Rivers vs. No. 6 Greens Farms
Not only are Rivers coach Kenny Small Jr. and Greens Farms coach Dannie Powell both in their first seasons — they were also once high school teammates at Stratford, Conn.
Rivers has the two best players in the matchup. Natalia Hall-Rosa and Grace O'Sullivan both are versatile wings and level-headed seniors. But Greens Farms has more balanced scoring and depth. The Dragons have also been more consistent, and aside from two losses to St. Luke's, they were rolling in February. It's another toss-up game, but I've been more impressed by what Greens Farms has done this winter.
Prediction: Greens Farms 61, Rivers 56
No. 4 Lawrence Academy vs. No. 5 St. Luke's
St. Luke's challenging schedule should have the team prepped for the postseason. It's hard to bet against Cam Nelson and her star talent. I've also enjoyed watching Olivia White's development as a physical, aggressive 6-foot wing. Her and Lawrence Academy standout Jasmine Becotte might match up, and even if they don't, that individual back-and-forth is worth following. I think St. Luke's has the sheer offensive firepower to get past Lawrence Academy. Like every Class B game, however, this could go either way.
Prediction: St. Luke's 55, Lawrence Academy 48
KEEP TRACK:Â Follow the latest results and schedule updates in classes B, C and D
