The MIAA girls basketball championships routinely bring out thrilling competition. It'll be hard to top last year's Div. 1 thriller, but the five games on tap at Tsongas Center this weekend each have intriguing storylines.
The best Division 1 teams all year — who hardly ever play each other — will meet in the final for the first time. Division 2 features two powerhouse programs with multiple state titles apiece in the last five years. Further down the divisions, you'll find five programs chasing their first state championships.
My last task before the weekend is to pick the winners. I've been on target this year. Four of my preseason title picks and four of my bracket champions reached Lowell. But I often slip up when the lights are brightest; I've missed on the Div. 1 game the last two seasons. So I'm anxious to end that skid.
Here are my predictions for each of the five championship games.
BRACKET TRACKERS:Â Division 1Â |Â Division 2Â |Â Division 3Â |Â Division 4Â |Â Division 5
Division 1
No. 1 Springfield Central vs. No. 3 Wachusett
Wachusett and Springfield Central dominated the Division 1 bracket, each winning all their games by double digits. But for all the familiarity we talk about at the top of Division 1, we've never seen these rosters go head to head.
The respective backcourts — Wachusett with Teegan Lanpher and Sophie Gibbons, Springfield Central with Gia Mars and Maya Ocana Saunders — are both talented and effectively a wash. Each side boasts a Div. 1-caliber wing: Tulsa commit Jae Scott for Wachusett and freshman phenom Zi'Yan Wallace for Springfield Central. Wachusett's core is older and more experienced, but that hasn't really mattered in recent state finals.
The most important swing factor is foul trouble. Wachusett and Springfield Central struggle when their best players, particularly Scott and Wallace, rack up early fouls and lose their flow. But after Scott's heroic performance to win the championship last year, she should feel confident in this setting. She's the best player on the court and that makes a difference as Wachusett seeks to repeat.
Prediction: Wachusett 58, Springfield Central 51
THE BIG PICTURE:Â My reflections on the MIAA season so far
Division 2
No. 1 Medfield vs. No. 3 St. Mary's
If you've followed any of our MIAA coverage this winter, you know the Warriors have decimated pretty much every opponent. Their press is terrifying, their arsenal of shooters feels limitless, and even against taller teams, they find a way to win rebounds and match physicality. It's no surprise I'm picking Medfield to three-peat.
So how does St. Mary's win? I don't give the Spartans enough credit for their defense, which is routinely among the better units in the state despite their youth. They need to frustrate Medfield into bad shots and center Charleigh Green needs to dominate on the boards. Freshman point guard Sysy Mcausland Emmanuel has improved significantly even just this season and could have another explosive scoring game in her. If the Spartans can slow the pace of the game, they'll hang around. But no one has been able to do that with Medfield yet.
Prediction: Medfield 65, St. Mary's 54
Division 3
No. 1 Bishop Fenwick vs. No. 2 Pittsfield
The two best players in this matchup are Crusaders: 6-foot senior guard Celia Neilson and 6-foot-2 Stonehill commit Caitlin Boyle. They're both on rails this postseason, and Neilson in particular is soaring after nearly hitting a triple-double (22 points, 11 steals, eight rebounds) in the semifinals against Medway. Her toughness and defensive impact set the tone for the rest of a physical Fenwick team with obvious extra motivation.
But this is a Pittsfield program that's been building toward a championship. They're similarly strong on defense, allowing 50 points just once since Jan. 21. Sophomore Caprese Conyers (16.3 points) and senior Harolyn Castillo (13.6 points) steer the offense.
Fenwick has more name recognition and is the clear favorite. As long as they don't let adrenaline override their on-court focus, they should be lined up for a statement championship win. But I think this game will be a bit closer than expected.
Prediction: Bishop Fenwick 54, Pittsfield 46
Division 4
No. 1 Frontier vs. No. 3 South Hadley
After finishing runner-up to Cathedral in the last two Division 4 finals, South Hadley can finally seize the spotlight here.
The Tigers have a great core of juniors in Cara Dean, who impressed me in last year's championship, plus Taylor Bullough and Kate Phillips. Olivia Athas is a rock-solid sophomore guard. All four average double-digit points, giving South Hadley plenty of options.
Frontier, seeking its first state title, leans heavily on junior Addie Harrington, averaging 18.3 points per game on the season and 24 points across the two head-to-head meetings. These teams split the season series — but I like South Hadley, who has been on this stage before and who rides an 11-game win streak.
Prediction: South Hadley 56, Frontier 53
Division 5
No. 1 Drury vs. No. 2 Hopedale
This is Drury's first-ever appearance in the MIAA state finals, and though the Blue Devils don't score a lot, their defense has been stingy for most of the winter. Four of their five losses have come against other state finalists in Frontier (twice), Pittsfield and South Hadley. Junior Delaney Hayden is the leading scorer, but this is a pretty balanced scoring offense overall.
Hopedale, meanwhile, centers around its senior star Phoebe Carroll, a Bridgewater State commit. Carroll is a routine 20-point scorer who still managed 14 in a 45-41 defensive affair against Douglas in the semifinals (Anna Fafard stepped up with 19 points). I think Douglas' defense has been consistent all season, though, and that lifts the Blue Devils to their first championship.
Prediction: Drury 49, Hopedale 44
