The rush of filling out basketball tournament brackets arrives in Massachusetts earlier than March.
The MIAA has announced its 2026 state tournament playoff fields, and it's time to make our predictions in girls basketball. I've filled out MIAA brackets each of the last three years and fared pretty well. Last winter, I picked 16 out of 20 Final 4 members correctly across all five brackets, including three of five correct state champions. That's been about the same for me throughout all three seasons. It also speaks to how consistently high seeds win. Among 80 semifinalists in the statewide tournament era, 74 teams were a No. 6 seed or better and no seed lower than No. 10 has made a Final 4.
But this year feels different. The MIAA modified its power rankings and seeding formula to reduce the maximum margin of victory, which slightly impacts where teams were seeded. We'll see how that affects possible playoff matchups. And as we've said all season, this winter in general has felt like one of the more unpredictable seasons on the girls side in recent years.
Here are my locked-in bracket picks for all five divisions of this year's girls basketball tournament.
GIRLS MIAA SCHEDULES: Division 1Â |Â Division 2Â |Â Division 3Â |Â Division 4 | Division 5
Division 1
Final 4:Â No. 1 Springfield Central, No. 2 Bishop Feehan, No. 3 Wachusett, No. 5 Worcester South
Championship:Â No. 3 Wachusett def. No. 1 Springfield Central
Analysis: Seven schools have hogged the 16 total Final 4 spots across four years of the Div. 1 statewide tournament, and only four schools have reached state finals. Those big four — Springfield Central, Bishop Feehan, Wachusett and No. 4 Andover – are once again the teams to beat. I don't see much changing. I do think Worcester South is talented and stingy enough on defense to prevail against Andover on the road in the quarterfinals. I would also keep an eye on a potential 2-vs.-7 matchup between Feehan and Braintree.
Wachusett is still dominant and now has the experience of putting together a championship run. I think the Mountaineers and Springfield Central are clearly a cut above the field in terms of talent and depth. That would be an awesome final, and though I'm picking Wachusett, don't sleep on the Golden Eagles and their young core.
The bracket:Â
Division 2
Final 4:Â No. 1 Medfield, No. 2 Whitman-Hanson, No. 3 St. Mary's, No. 5 Minnechaug
Championship:Â No. 1 Medfield def. No. 3 St. Mary's
Analysis: I would argue this is as strong a postseason bracket as I have seen in the last four years of MIAA girls basketball. Seven different schools appeared in our Top 10 rankings at some point in the season and some true stars, like Avery Gamble on Oliver Ames and Jenna Mishou on Archbishop Williams, could help lead upsets. I went conservative with my picks here, with my boldest choice being Minnechaug downing No. 4 Foxboro on the road in the quarterfinals. But three of my Final 4 selections lost somewhat surprisingly in the last month, so there's plenty of chaos potential.
That said — Div. 2 also has the heaviest favorite this winter. Medfield has won every game by double digits, finishing off the regular season with a 66-55 win over Wachusett. It will take an otherworldly effort to keep the Warriors from a three-peat.
The bracket:
Division 3
Final 4:Â No. 1 Bishop Fenwick, No. 2 Pittsfield, No. 5 Cathedral, No. 6 Pembroke
Championship:Â No. 5 Cathedral def. No. 2 Pittsfield
Analysis:Â It's been a rocky season for Cathedral; the Panthers started 5-4 and lost to several teams they should have beaten. But their close to the season, with three straight wins against Walpole, Woburn and East Bridgewater, showed me a lot. Their style is also a great fit for the larger courts that often show up at neutral sites in the final rounds of the tournament. That's why I have Cathedral beating Bishop Fenwick, despite the head-to-head loss earlier this month, and winning a fourth consecutive title.
Cathedral and Fenwick are the two best teams in this bracket in my opinion. Fenwick has the two best players in Celia Neilson and Caitlin Boyle, and they could easily take over this tournament. I think a possible 3-vs.-6 matchup between Apponequet and Pembroke is a great one, too. Apponequet is 21-1 and beat some solid opponents to close its regular season, but Pembroke has battled in a strong Patriot League.
The bracket:Â
Division 4
Final 4:Â No. 1 Frontier, No. 2 Millis, No. 3 South Hadley, No. 4 Millbury
Championship:Â No. 3 South Hadley def. No. 1 Frontier
Analysis: With three-time champion Cathedral now in Div. 3, this spot is wide open for a new school to take the crown. Frontier has been steady all season behind junior playmaker Addie Harrington, consistently beating its Div. 4 and Div. 5 foes and only losing by two points to Pittsfield. But that also includes a split with South Hadley, a two-year bridesmaid in this Division that ran into the Cathedral onslaught twice.
I think South Hadley is much better than the 11-10 record shows. The Tigers started the winter 4-10, and have since rattled off wins including against Frontier, Pittsfield and Wahconah. They have most of the core from last season's runner-up finish and played by far the toughest schedule in this division.
The bracket:Â
Division 5
Final 4:Â No. 1 Drury, No. 2 Hopedale, No. 3 Douglas, No. 4 Saint John Paul II
Championship:Â No. 1 Drury def. No. 3 Douglas
Analysis:Â When we get down to Division 5, strength of schedule and home court advantage/travel advantage really become a factor for me. Drury has not lost to a Div. 5 opponent. Douglas and Hopedale split against each other (though Hopedale's Saturday win in the Clark Tournament final does not count towards regular season records). Saint John Paul II is located a world away from most of the other contenders. Though I'm watching a potential 2-vs-7 matchup between Hopedale and unbeaten Minuteman, I otherwise think these top seeds should have mostly smooth sailing. From there, I just believe Drury is the most balanced and well-prepared.
The bracket:
