It's not quite March Madness, but the MIAA state tournament gives us own bracket-filling fix.
The MIAA released the postseason tournament fields on Saturday. The last two years of the statewide tournament, I've challenged myself by filling out brackets and posting them on social media. This year, with New England Basketball Journal, I'll be including them all here — with a quick peek at my thought process for each bracket. I've done alright in the past. Last year I picked three of the five champions correctly with 17 of 20 correct Final 4 picks. In 2023, I went 4-for-5 on title picks and 16-for-20 on Final 4 selections.
Those hit rates sounds great, but they say more about how accurately the playoff seedings typically shake out. In three years of statewide tournaments, only one No. 10 seed has reached the Final 4, along with one No. 8 seed and two No. 7 seeds, among 60 teams. I unpacked the consistency a bit more during last year's tournament. I also won't pretend I've watched every single team enough to make a confident choice — that's logistically impossible. But I have looked at past bracket trends, season schedules, power ratings and more to give my best guesses.
Below are my filled-in brackets. Feel free to use them as bulletin board material.
Division 1
Final 4:Â No. 1 Wachusett, No. 2 Bishop Feehan, No. 3 Springfield Central, No. 5 Woburn
Championship:Â No. 2 Bishop Feehan def. No. 1 Wachusett
Analysis: In the three years of Division 1 statewide tournaments, a grand total of six teams have occupied 12 possible Final 4 spots. The teams I've chosen are simply proven powerhouses, both this year and in previous seasons. Will their paths be easy? No, especially with Woburn (19-1) potentially facing a road quarterfinal against a great Braintree (18-2) squad.
As for the possible championship rematch, I lean on Bishop Feehan's experience over a Wachusett side that is undoubtedly talented but much younger than last winter's team. But this could go either way. The same logic had me picking Wachusett over Bishop Feehan last year, and the Shamrocks flipped that script.
The bracket:Â
Division 2
Final 4:Â No. 1 Medfield, No. 2 Dartmouth, No. 4 Notre Dame (Hingham), No. 6 Worcester South
Championship:Â No. 1 Medfield def. No. 2 Dartmouth
Analysis: The consensus is that Medfield (19-1) is a cut above the rest and a heavy favorite to repeat. But I'll be the first to call Division 2 the deepest and most competitive in MIAA this season. Worcester South (15-4) is a very strong candidate to get back to the final, as I have the Colonels upsetting third-seeded Norwood (15-5). Notre Dame (19-1) vs. fifth-seeded North Quincy (17-3) could be a thriller. I view seventh-seeded Whitman-Hanson (14-7) as capable of a deep run; they beat Dartmouth on the road in last year's tournament. Though I played this bracket conservatively, I see a lot of upset potential even in the Round of 32.
The bracket:
Division 3
Final 4:Â No. 1 St. Mary's, No. 2 Foxboro, No. 3 Norwell, No. 5 Pittsfield
Championship:Â No. 2 Foxboro def. No. 1 St. Mary's
Analysis: There's a case that Division 3 might have the most hotly-contested upper echelon. Foxboro (19-1), St. Mary's (20-3) and Norwell (19-1) are three Top 10 teams who were each Final 4 members last season. Though I have Foxboro on repeat status (three-peat if you count the 2022-23 Div. 2 title), St. Mary's is a very evenly-matched opponent — and much more prepared for the Warriors versus last year's blowout loss in the semifinals. I've been keeping an eye on Pittsfield all season and would not sleep on the Western Mass. giant. The Generals are 20-1 (including Saturday's Western Mass. Class B tournament championship win) and beat Springfield Central back on Jan. 3.
The bracket:
Division 4
Final 4: No. 1 Cathedral, No. 2 Millis, No. 3 South Hadley, No. 4 Bourne
Championship: No. 1 Cathedral def. No. 2 Millis
Analysis: It's hard to see the field having the depth of talent and offensive firepower to keep Cathedral (14-5) from a three-peat. But the top of Division 4 has a bunch of quality teams that'll try their hardest. Millis (13-7) is battle-tested in the Tri-Valley League and played Medfield close in a 49-44 loss on Jan. 7. South Hadley (18-2) seeks revenge for last year's championship loss, while Bourne (19-2) hopes to break through behind star guard Paige Meda. I'm going chalk with my Final 4 picks, but Division 4 has brought chaos with a No. 7, No. 8 and No. 10 seed making it to the semifinals in previous years. Cathedral was upset as a No. 1 seed by 16-seed Cohasset (seeded fifth this year) in the 2022 postseason.
The bracket:
Division 5
Final 4: No. 2 Hoosac Valley, No. 3 Maynard, No. 5 Renaissance, No. 8 Drury
Championship: No. 2 Hoosac Valley def. No. 5 Renaissance
Analysis: Division 5 is always a wild card because of the amount of teams from all over the state, largely from weaker conferences. I saved my boldest Final 4 pick for this bracket, predicting Dury (10-10) will upset top-seeded Hopedale (16-4). It's not a shot at Hopedale, who could very easily make me look silly. But Drury made a run to the quarterfinals last winter as a No. 14 seed. The Devils have the highest opponent rating in Division 5 and played a lot of good teams close in tough losses. There's plenty of potential with this squad.
That being said, Hoosac Valley (17-3) is a perennial Division 5 giant. Ashlyn Lesure scored 16 points in last year's title victory, and she's back to lead a repeat bid. Renaissance will put its perfect 21-0 season (including a Western Mass. Class C championship win Saturday) to the test.
The bracket:
