The MIAA basketball championships have arrived, and on the girls side, we're getting some déjà vu.
Eight of the ten finalists are returners and four schools could repeat as division champions. Three of the five contests are title rematches from last year. And many of the stars who shined last March will have the chance to end their high school careers with a trophy.
But a lot can change in a year. The state tournament brought plenty of dramatic games and more upsets than expected, saving the best for last. What do we expect will go down this weekend at Tsongas Center?
Here are our predictions for the five championship matchups.
PLAYOFF BRACKETS: Division 1Â |Â Division 2Â |Â Division 3 | Division 4 | Division 5
Division 1
No. 1 Wachusett vs. No. 2 Bishop Feehan
Despite the field's best efforts, we get a loaded Division 1 title rematch. Bishop Feehan (23-3) is the favorite even as a No. 2 seed. The reigning champion Shamrocks were atop our Top 10 most of the winter before a late loss to Foxboro and have cruised in their postseason to date, with four wins by 25-plus points.
They have a pair of elite guards in Brown commit Charlotte Adams-Lopez and Maddy Steel. Mollie Mullen is a versatile defender with an additional scoring punch, and the emergence of Lily Singer at center has been critical. Feehan didn't even need Adams-Lopez and Steel to carry the load in the semifinals; Singer (16 points, eight rebounds, five blocks) and Mullen (14 points, four steals, four assists) led a 72-42 rout of Springfield Central.
Wachusett (23-1), even by coach Jim Oxford's own admission, wasn't expected to get this far after graduating seven seniors from last season's juggernaut. But led by juniors Jaelynn Scott and Sophie Gibbons, as well as sophomore Teegan Lanpher, the Mountaineers have brought similar themes of versatile scoring and high-effort defense back to the final without losing a single in-state game.
The Mountaineers are underdogs, but they have advantages, namely in the frontcourt size of Scott and freshman Kyla Yurkus. Wachusett needs them to take control inside like they did in the semifinals against Braintree. The backcourt matchup is also intriguing, with the faster, pesky Gibbons and Lanpher squaring off against the bigger, more experienced Adams-Lopez and Steel.
I lean with Bishop Feehan's experience and consistency to go back-to-back. But last year I picked Wachusett to win for the same reasons, and the Mountaineers fell short. This is very much anyone's game.
Prediction: Bishop Feehan 54, Wachusett 46
Division 2
No. 1 Medfield vs. No. 6 Worcester South
The narrative in Division 2 is very similar to Division 1. It's a rematch of last year's state championship that pits expectedly dominant Medfield against a South team with an impressive bounce-back run.
The Warriors (22-2) have lost just once in-state all season, to Foxboro during the Comcast Tournament. They've won every tournament game by 22 or more points behind an elite case of versatile guards and wings. Sophomore Naya Annigeri, fresh off a 24-point, six-assist performance against North Quincy, headlines the group. But Tess Baacke, Abby Broderick and Izzy Kittredge have each stepped up to lead the group at different points in the playoffs. Throw in Jailen Annigeri and Medfield boasts a starting five comprised of great-to-elite perimeter shooters.
South (19-4), meanwhile, wasn't supposed to make it back to the final after graduating much of the core from last year's remarkable season. But behind 1,000-point scorer Bryan Bascones, the Colonels have overcome a tough early schedule and are playing their best basketball at the right time. Junior Gianah Estevez scored a career-high 21 points on her birthday Wednesday to help South win a gritty, 41-39 semifinal against Whitman-Hanson. This is an elite defense that pressures the ball and plays physical to frustrate opponents.
South has let one opponent clear 50 points all season. Medfield has scored less than 50 just once all season, often ending in the high 60s and 70s. I'll stick with reigning champ Warriors to repeat because even when the game gets bogged down, they still win, as shown in last year's 48-42 championship triumph. This group is too versatile.
Prediction: Medfield 52, Worcester South 41
Division 3
No. 1 St. Mary's vs. No. 3 Norwell
The Spartans and Clippers have been among the best in Division 3 in recent years, but this is the first time they'll actually meet in the statewide tournament.
St. Mary's (24-3) is a year removed from back-to-back championships. The young Spartans were overwhelmed in the semifinals by Foxboro last season, but they're more mature and ready to reclaim the throne. Bella Owumi, the top college prospect in MIAA, has taken a notable sophomore leap and now pairs legitimate scoring and playmaking prowess with her elite defense as a do-it-all wing. But she has help from players like steady senior center Reese Matela, tough-nosed sophomore guard Lily Norton and senior sharpshooter Juliana Conte. This is a very good defensive team, and when the offense runs hot, they're all-but unstoppable.
Norwell (23-1) has waited for this game. The Clippers ascended from a quarterfinal exit in 2022 to the semifinals in 2023, then made their first state final appearance in 35 years last season but stood little chance against Foxboro. This year, they're poised and motivated, as shown when they got revenge against Foxboro in Monday's semifinal matchup. Maddie Oliver, a 5-foot-11 senior, is a challenging cover with her size, handle, soft touch and great court vision for a forward. She has a partner in crime in sweet-shooting point guard Reagan Dowd. They're flanked by a deep rotation including senior Paige Maguire and sophomore Alex Cassidy.
These are evenly-matched teams on paper. Defensive gameplans will be fun to watch. Does St. Mary's put Owumi on Oliver to counter Oliver's speed, or Matela to match her physical strength? Can Norton shut down Dowd? Will Oliver stay in the paint on defense to protect the rim and grab rebounds, or is she Norwell's best shot at frustrating Owumi? As the stars battle, it could be lesser-known players who step up and make game-deciding shots.
Prediction: St. Mary's 49, Norwell 44
Division 4
No. 1 Cathedral vs. No. 3 South Hadley
The Panthers (18-5) have been the top seed in all four iterations of the Division 1 statewide tournament. Since they lost in an upset to Cohasset in 2022, they've beaten tournament opponents by 32.5 points per game, per Danny Ventura of the Boston Herald. They seek a three-peat, and it's hard to doubt their chances.
I've hyped Hijjah Allen-Paisley and Keyona Raines as one of the state's best and most underrated backcourts in the state. That remains true; the duo scored 18 and 16 points respectively in a 71-31 stomping of Bourne during Wednesday's semifinal. Tamia Darling continues to improve as an athletic rebounder and slashing wing. Malani Smith always seems to come up with a crunch-time bucket. Clinton Lassiter is seeking a state-record seventh championship as a head coach. His teams are rarely shaken from their fast-paced, aggressive style.
Once again, we get a championship rematch. South Hadley (22-2) won a 45-42 thriller over second-seeded Millis in the semis behind 18 points and clutch free throws from Kate Phillips. Phillips, a sophomore, is part of an impressive young core that includes classmate Cara Dean and freshman Olivia Athas. They've ascended to lead a group that balances its scoring and played rock-solid defense.
Cathedral is just so overpowering. Last year, South Hadley went up 10 points in the first quarter of the championship game before Cathedral locked in and flipped the result into a 69-49 victory. The Panthers should take control again.
Prediction: Cathedral 64, South Hadley 50
Division 5
No. 2 Hoosac Valley vs. No. 5 Renaissance
Could we see four repeat champions? Hoosac Valley (21-3), a longtime Division 5 power, takes on a Renaissance team looking for its breakthrough moment.
The Hurricanes are one of just four teams — along with Wachusett, Medfield and St. Mary's — to reach the Final 4 or better in all four years of the statewide tournament. They've created a strong pipeline within the community and it allows them to consistently re-stock talent at a rate few other Div. 5 schools can match. Ashlyn Lesure, who scored 16 points in last year's final, leads the way as a senior. She scored 17 in the semifinal victory against third-seeded Maynard and is flanked by senior Emma Meczywor, sophomore Reagan Shea and freshman Genevieve Lagess. Shea is a dangerous shooter who has canned 46 3-pointers this season.
But Renaissance (25-0) has been on the cusp. They're eager to avenge last year's 57-49 semifinal loss to Hoosac Valley and complete a perfect season. This is an incredibly young team with one senior and zero juniors. Eighth-grader Zi'Yan Wallace is the star, averaging 19.8 points per game with 20 or more in every tournament contest so far.
Renaissance might have more natural talent on the roster, but can it overcome its inexperience? This should be a close matchup, but I'll stick with my pre-tournament pick.
Prediction: Hoosac Valley 57, Renaissance 50
