The brackets are out. Now, it’s time to fill them.
The MIAA released its boys basketball state tournament fields on Saturday, and across all five divisions, there’s excitement in the air. Preliminary games begin Monday, with the round of 32 set for later in the week.
So, who’s going to win it all? Which sleeper teams might be making a deep run? What upsets are lurking? This may be my first season covering MIAA and the state tournaments, but no basketball tournament is fun without filling out a bracket.
Here’s my crack at all five divisions, with some analysis mixed in. Save them now, use them as bulletin board material, and rub it in my face later if I’m wrong. But I’m pretty confident I’ve got all the winners.
Division 1
Final 4: No. 1 Franklin, No. 3 Newton North, No. 4 Central Catholic, No. 7 Springfield Central
Championship: No. 3 Newton North def. No. 4 Central Catholic
Analysis: With back-to-back champion Worcester North not in the field, there will be a new champion in Division 1, which is wide open. No path is easy for the top four seeds; top-seeded Franklin could face North Andover – a senior-laden group that made last year’s round of 8 – before a potential matchup with one of two of my favorite sleepers in the field, Bridgewater-Raynham and Winchester.
I went bold with an upset here: No. 15 Catholic Memorial over No. 2 Attleboro. The Knights have two talented underclassmen guards – sophomore Aiden Pires and freshman Jacari Jenkins – surrounded by seniors like John Hoenscheid and Graham Horowitz who were a part of last season’s Final Four team.
The pick is Newton North, which has passed every test this winter en route to a 20-0 record against MIAA teams. Teagan Swint is the best player in the state capable of carrying this group to a title, and he’s helped by a deep supporting cast that understands their roles. Truthfully, I can see any of Newton North, Central Catholic, Lowell or Franklin winning the championship. The margins are so small.
The bracket:
Division 2
Final 4: No. 1 Malden Catholic, No. 2 Mansfield, No. 5 Whitman-Hanson, No. 6 Somerset Berkley
Championship: No. 1 Malden Catholic def. No. 6 Somerset Berkley
Analysis: Unlike Division 1, Division 2 has a clear-cut, overwhelming favorite. Malden Catholic is seeking a historic fourth consecutive championship, and the top-seeded Lancers look primed to do it. All-everything guard and Navy commit Matt Gaffney, a pillar of their dynasty, runs the show. They haven’t skipped a beat without injured forward Ben Howard, with Mamadou Camara and Colin Mannke providing consistent production.
Mansfield and Oliver Ames, two strong teams from the Hockomock, could spoil the party, but the biggest challenger to MC’s throne is Somerset Berkley. The Raiders lost by two to the Lancers in last season’s Final Four, and brought back most of their team this winter. In the end, though, Malden Catholic is just too good.
The bracket:
Division 3
Final 4: No. 1 St. Mary’s, No. 3 Newburyport, No. 4 Shawsheen Valley Tech, No. 10 Hanover
Championship: No. 1 St. Mary’s def. No. 3 Newburyport
Analysis: St. Mary’s rolled to a 21-0 start this season before suffering their first loss in last week’s regular-season finale to Lynn Tech at the Spartan Classic, but the Spartans are still the favorite in Division 3. Norwell enters the tournament 21-0 with a great chance to make a run to the final, but I went bold again with an upset pick: No. 10 Hanover – which boasts an impressive win over Marshfield two weeks ago – over Norwell in the quarterfinals.
Two potential juicy matchups: No. 4 Shawsheen Tech vs. No. 5 Greater Lawrence Tech, which would be the third matchup between the Commonwealth rivals after they split their season series, and No. 8 Abington vs. No. 9 Watertown.
Ultimately, my pick is St. Mary’s, with the talent of JJ Martinez and Jake Fortier winning out in a rematch with Newburyport, who they beat on a Martinez buzzer-beater two weeks ago.
Division 4
Final 4: No. 2 Bourne, No. 3 Clinton, No. 4 Millbury, No. 8 Lynn Vo-Tech
Championship: No. 2 Bourne def. No. 4 Millbury
Analysis: Following back-to-back championships for Wareham, it looks like Division 4 is ready for a new champion. No. 1 seed Holland School of Technology (formerly Burke) enters as the Boston City League champion, Bourne is a frontrunner after making last season’s final, Clinton holds a 19-1 record and Millbury is back after falling in overtime to Wareham in last season’s Final Four. Don’t sleep on Lynn Vo-Tech, which took down St. Mary’s at the Spartan Classic last week.
The pick is Bourne, which boasts the best 1-2 punch in D4 with seniors Mike Dankert and Nathan Reynolds. They’re motivated after falling short last winter, and I think the Canalmen will be cutting down the nets come mid-March.
The bracket:
Division 5
Final 4: No. 1 Pioneer Valley, No. 3 Granby, No. 4 Drury, No. 7 New Mission
Championship: No. 1 Pioneer Valley def. No. 7 New Mission
Analysis: In a field loaded with Western Mass. teams at the top, Pioneer Valley is the clear favorite after a 20-0 regular season. Led by senior Kurt Redeker, the Panthers are battle-tested after advancing to last season’s semifinals and are ready to climb the mountaintop this season. New Mission, last season’s Division 5 champion, looms as a possible threat.
The bracket:
