Every year, an under-the-radar sleeper team shakes up the MIAA boys basketball tournaments.
The numbers back it up, and I found some fun nuggets. Since the MIAA shifted to the statewide format in 2022 – across all divisions – 36 double-digit seeds have made at least the Elite 8, including 12 teams with a seed of No. 20 or higher. Five of those double-digit seeds went on to advance to the Final Four. Last year, it was No. 20 Old Rochester who reached the Division 3 final.
There have been some surprising champions. Four No. 6 seeds – including Somerset Berkley and Georgetown last year – have been title winners. Unlikely outcomes have littered the tournaments. No. 23 Snowden made the Division 4 Final 4 in 2022. No. 38 Middleborough advanced to the Division 2 Elite 8 in 2024. No. 36 Norton knocked off No. 4 Shawsheen in last year’s Round of 32.
History suggests the theme will continue this year, and this tournament is ripe with lower seeds or overlooked squads who are ready to crash the party and make a memorable run. Here are eight darkhorse candidates to watch over the next three weeks.
BOYS MIAA BRACKETS:Â Division 1 | Division 2 | Division 3 | Division 4 | Division 5
Division 1
No. 10 Xaverian
The Hawks only went 12-8 this season, but finished strong with a 10-2 record over their last 12 games. They’re battle-tested from the difficult Catholic Conference, notching wins over No. 4 BC High, No. 8 Malden Catholic, No. 16 Catholic Memorial, No. 14 Bishop Feehan and No. 5 New Bedford over the last month. A tough road matchup looms at No. 7 Attleboro in the Round of 16, but they seem to be peaking at the right time.
No. 14 Bishop Feehan
The Shamrocks faced the sixth-hardest schedule among teams in the D1 tournament field, earning wins over No. 10 Xaverian, No. 6 Bridgewater-Raynham and Division 4 No. 1 Wareham, and they had two three-point losses to No. 7 Attleboro. They boast the biggest – literally – matchup problem in the state with 6-foot-9 forward Brody Bumila, who forces teams to adjust their game plans and defensive coverages to limit him, and he’s surrounded by a strong playmaker in Egan Gill and a double-double threat in Jake Webster. At worst this team is a difficult out and they’re certainly capable of an upset of No. 3 Needham, which could set up a Round of 16 meeting with a B-R team they’ve already beaten.
TWO-WAY TERROR: How Brody Bumila balances basketball with future baseball career
No. 21 Newton North
Would anybody be surprised if the Tigers advanced to the Final Four? They finished 14-6 under first-year coach John McNamara and I believe they’re much better than a 21-seed. Their quadrant – led by No. 4 BC High and No. 5 New Bedford – is more wide open than other parts of the bracket. Of course, they no longer have Teagan Swint – the star of last season’s run to the championship game – but they still have experienced players like Bryson Mercedes, Mathaois Stamm, Jake Lyons and Luke Washek who have been on this stage.
Their path is difficult, requiring them to go on the road to Western Mass. and No. 12 Springfield Central for their first-round game before likely road dates with New Bedford and BC High. But Newton North beat BC High by double digits last week during a 5-1 stretch to close the regular season that included a win over No. 15 Cambridge and a competitive six-point loss at No. 2 Andover. I’d bet on the Tigers to go on a run.
Division 2
No. 5 Mansfield
The Hornets may have played their way out of sleeper status with their form over the last month. But in a crowded Division 2 contender race that includes favorite St. Mary’s and No. 3 Masconomet, who made last year’s Final Four, Mansfield deserves attention as a serious state championship threat. They fell off the radar briefly after a 2-4 start, but the return of senior star Gabe McIntyre – another high IQ player and big-time scorer – from injury has fueled a 15-1 record since Jan. 6. The growth of senior Matas Gutauskas and junior Brody Billone has been a significant boost to their efficiency, and they boast great depth with Darrian Sanders, Tommy Vallett and others. Mansfield is playing its best basketball of the season at the right time, coach Mike Vaughan has led deep March runs and this squad looks poised for a title run.
PREDICTIONS: Our picks for the MIAA boys basketball tournament
No. 24 Somerset Berkley
The Raiders graduated four of their five starters from last season’s state title-winning team, but they are still formidable with senior star Dom Taylor, who fired in a career-high 51 points in a win over King Philip last week. And they may have a sudden opening in their bracket. No. 9 Newburyport, their first-round opponent, lost senior star Ben Cormier to an unfortunate season-ending injury last week. The Clippers are still strong, led by Cal Atherton and Zayd Leanna, but the loss of the 6-foot-8 Cormier hurts. There may be a path for Somerset to pull an upset and go on a run.
Division 3
No. 6 Lynn Classical
Shy Babb is one of the best players in this bracket. The 6-foot-5 senior has posted eye-popping stat lines throughout the winter, including a 25-point, 16-rebound, five-block performance in the season finale win over Everett, and he hit a game-winner to cap a miraculous final minute comeback over Chelsea on Feb. 11. The Rams are experienced and motivated after a Round of 16 exit last season to No. 1 St. Mary’s, and they own a victory over No. 4 Swampscott on their resume. Winners of 11 of their last 12, they should give No. 3 Tewksbury a battle in the quarterfinals and threaten for a Final Four bid.
No. 12 Greater Lawrence Tech
Battle-tested can be an overused phrase, but the Reggies faced an early-season gauntlet of Division 1 contenders in Central Catholic, Andover and Malden Catholic, and they took Newburyport to the wire last week at the Spartan Classic. Led by Stevie Martinez, one of the most respected coaches in the state, Greater Lawrence won’t be fazed by any opponent. The Reggies have a fun backcourt duo of sophomore Amarian Lopes and senior Albert Diaz and have a path to the Elite 8 with a winnable game against No. 5 HS of Science and Tech.
Division 4
No. 9 New Heights Charter
In just their third season in MIAA, the Phoenix improved their seed from No. 29 last winter to No. 9 in this tournament as they eye a realistic run to the quarterfinals – and maybe beyond. They have four seniors, led by captain Joshua Quintal, who forms a physically imposing frontcourt with junior big Justin Ryans. That unique size should pose a tough matchup in D4. The Phoenix are 16-1, with their only loss coming on Dec. 30 in a six-point defeat to Abington.
