Last time we checked on the MIAA power rankings, when they were first released in early January, I gave a caveat: This doesn't really matter right now.
Well, a month later, the power rankings have everyone's attention.
We're a week away from the cutoff date of the MIAA regular season, with state tournament brackets tentative scheduled for release on Feb. 22. The power rankings become the seeds for each postseason bracket. Following the MIAA's latest update of the rankings on Friday morning, we have a much better sense of what the tournament fields might look like.
There's still time left for teams to impact the seedings in their final games. Here's what to watch for as the regular season comes to a close.
The all-important No. 4 seed races
Sure, the order of the top four seeds in each division matters for potential matchup purposes. But the difference between a No. 4 and No. 5 seed is game-changing. The quarterfinals are the last round where the better seed hosts each contest before the semifinals transition to neutral sites. That means a No. 4 seed is the last seed that still gets home-court advantage through the quarterfinals.
Springfield Central (15.533) is currently fending off Natick (15.029), Quincy (14.893) and Woburn (14.706) for the fourth seed in Division 1. If Springfield Central holds the spot, that would dramatically change its potential travel schedule for the quarterfinals. Notre Dame Hingham (15.364) has a small gap on Worcester South (13.617) in Division 2, but that is also an important battle to watch.
Norwell (15.274) seems to have the fourth seed locked up in Division 3. Think about the dramatic geographic difference between the Clippers and fifth-seeded Pittsfield (12.712) in Western Massachusetts.
In Division 4, Bourne (7.743), Cohasset (7.466) and Millbury (6.692) are all neck-and-neck for the fourth seed. Two undefeated teams are fighting for it in Division 5: Lenox (4.462) and Renaissance (4.228).
Some razor-thin bubble races
To make the MIAA postseason, teams must finish in the top 32 of their respective power rankings, or have a record of .500 or better at the end of the regular season.
Division 1 has a chaotic bubble race, with seeds 26 through 35 are all sub-.500 and separated by roughly 1.1 points in the power rankings. The margins are incredibly close. Those teams: Marshfield (8-10), Taunton (8-10), Newton South (8-9), Shrewsbury (6-11), Arlington (7-12), Acton-Boxboro (6-12), Attleboro (8-9), North Andover (8-10), Durfee (8-9) and Wellesley (3-15).
In Division 2, No. 28 Holliston (7-12), No. 29 North Attleboro (7-11) and No. 30 Hingham (6-12) are sub-.500 teams just inside the top-32 cutoff. No. 35 Ashland (5-14) sits just outside. No. 32 Tewksbury (9-8) has three games remaining on its schedule, so it's on the edge of both the top 32 and the .500 auto bid.
Div. 3 has No. 29 Stoneham (8-11), No. 30 Wilmington (4-14) and No. 32 Lynnfield (8-10) hanging on the bubble, with No. 34 Falmouth (8-11) lurking outside. Div. 4 No. 32 seed Lunenburg (5-13) and No. 33 Rockland (4-17) are at the mercy of the numbers and separated by .08 points. Palmer (4-14) hopes to hang on as a No. 32 seed in Div. 5, with Franklin County Tech (9-10) barely missing the cut as a No. 34 seed.
Top 20 overall teams
We compiled this list in January and it's worth looking at again since MIAA team overall ratings are unaffected by a school's division. Across all five divisions, here are the top 20 teams in MIAA according to the power rankings.
1. Medfield (Div. 2) — 20.970
2. Wachusett (Div. 1) — 19.577
3. Bishop Feehan (Div. 1) — 19.414
4. St. Mary's (Div. 3) — 18.576
5. Norwood (Div. 2) — 17.807
6. Medway (Div. 3) — 16.813
7. Braintree (Div. 1) — 16.732
8. Foxboro (Div. 3) — 15.589
9. Springfield Central (Div. 1) — 15.533
10. Dartmouth (Div. 2) — 15.455
11. Notre Dame Hingham (Div. 2) — 15.364
12. Norwell (Div. 3) — 15.274
13. Natick (Div. 1) — 15.029
14. Woburn (Div. 1) — 14.893
15. Quincy (Div. 1) — 14.706
16. Cathedral (Div. 4) — 14.654
17. Worcester South (Div. 2) — 13.617
18. North Quincy (Div. 2) — 13.536
19. Millis (Div. 4) — 13.428
20. Westwood (Div. 2) — 13.221
The best overall rating... ever?
Let's add some extra context to Medfield's dominant season. In the three previous years of the MIAA statewide tournament, no team — boys or girls — has ever logged a higher overall rating than the 2022-23 Andover girls (20.36). That Golden Warriors squad went undefeated to win the Division 1 title, and it matches my memory as the best girls basketball team over the same span.
Medfield is on pace to beat that record. The Warriors can even help their rating in the Board 27 Tournament by playing Foxboro followed by (if they win) Bishop Feehan. Does it mean anything? Not really, but it's a cool fact for Medfield to chase.
Way-too-early matchup possibilities
Several seeds have swapped even between Tuesday and Friday's updates, so there's a lot left to be decided. But we can start thinking about some of the potential meetings in the early and later rounds of the postseason. If things stayed the same, here are three non-championship matchups I'd be excited about:
No. 6 Woburn at No. 3 Braintree, Div. 1 quarterfinals:Â Braintree has been one of the breakout teams of the winter, asserting itself as the best in the Bay State Conference. Meanwhile, Woburn just wrapped up its fourth perfect Middlesex League campaign in a row and remains undefeated. These are two elite defenses with a great post-player matchup in Shannon McCarthy (Woburn) vs. Frankie Spadorcia (Braintree).
No. 13 Oliver Ames at No. 4 Notre Dame (Hingham), Div. 2 Round of 16:Â Avery Gamble (Oliver Ames) and Ava Orlando (Notre Dame) are two of the elite guards in MIAA. This would be a great meeting of talent, especially for an early-round game.
No. 5 Pittsfield at No. 4 Norwell, Div. 3 quarterfinals:Â These are two dominant yet relatively untested 17-1 programs. Norwell demolished its South Shore League slate and has yet to lose in-state. Pittsfield, meanwhile, scored a stunning early win against Springfield Central and has largely torn up Western Mass. It would be a tough road trip, but don't sleep on the Generals.
