The first MIAA power rankings drop is among the more highly-anticipated days of the regular season. It provides our first glimpse into the future at the potential state tournament field and playoff seedings.
The MIAA released that first batch Friday morning. It's very important to note that these rankings are heavily influenced by the small sample size of the season so far. We're barely a month into regular season games. A lot will change in the power rankings — but we know you have thoughts, and we do as well.
To recall the formula: every team’s overall “rating” is the sum of two components: its average margin of victory (with a six-point maximum/-6-point minimum MOV for wins/losses of six-plus points), plus its opponent rating (the average of their opponents’ overall ratings).
Here are my five immediate takeaways from the girls power rankings. You can find them officially listed on the MIAA website.
Do not overlook Springfield Central
The Golden Eagles open as the No. 1 team in Division 1 and the No. 1 team in the state. That shouldn't be too surprising. They're 6-1 with a lone loss out of state to Virginia Academy and have already beaten nearly every other contender in Western Mass.
Freshman sensation Zi'Yan Wallace, who transferred from Renaissance, is averaging 20 points per game with sophomore Giavanna Mars (17.3 points) right behind her. With the way Division 1 has shaken out so far, I'd consider Springfield Central the primary challenger to defending champion Wachusett. I plan to watch them when I attend Friday's portion of the Hoophall Classic. The Golden Eagles will get a fantastic test against Northwest Catholic, our No. 1-ranked CIAC team.
Springfield Central is followed by a close grouping of Wachusett, Natick, Needham and Bishop Feehan. I'd consider those five the top tier of Division 1 right now.
The Patriot League is living up to the hype
On our MIAA season preview podcast, Trevor Hass and I were both excited about the potential of the conference — and it might be exceeding our expectations.
The top three teams in the Division 2 power rankings right now are from the Patriot League. That includes Whitman-Hanson (second here and fifth in our MIAA Top 10) and North Quincy (third here and seventh in the Top 10). Even more notable, undefeated Duxbury leads the division. The Dragons have quality wins against conference rivals Hanover and Quincy in their bag and get another great test at Hingham this evening.
Hingham (6-1) sits 11th in the Div. 2 rankings. Elsewhere in the Patriot League: Quincy (4-3) ranks ninth and Plymouth North (2-3) ranks 14th in Division 1. In Division 3, Hanover (3-2) sits fourth. That's seven of the twelve teams in the conference making serious noise so far.
Who's being slept on?
I immediately was surprised that Medfield (7-0), our top-ranked team, is down at No. 7 in the Division 2 rankings. Why could that be? Well, the Warriors' biggest win of the season so far against Londonderry (N.H.) was technically a scrimmage. They also demolished Bedford (N.H.), but because the Bulldogs have not played any other MIAA teams yet, that win doesn't look as impressive in the power rankings as it has in past seasons. However, Bedford does have other MIAA opponents on the schedule, so I'm curious if that win will weigh more over time. I also wonder if the smaller MOV cap hurts Medfield so far when all of its wins have been by much larger than six points (more on that in a bit).
South High (3-2) just defeated Bishop Feehan this week; I wouldn't forget about the Colonels, ranked 13th in Division 1. Archbishop Williams (4-2) slotting in 19th in Division 2 is another surprise, and I think the Bishops will climb over time. Same goes for Cathedral (4-3), another Catholic Central League team that's way down at 16th in Division 3. I also wouldn't overlook South Shore powers Norwell (currently 10th) and East Bridgewater (11th) in Div. 3 either.
Lastly, I think viewers might see 1-4 South Hadley and its third place in Division 4 as strange. But look at that strength of schedule number. At 8.57, it's the fifth-largest mark in the entire state. The Tigers have played a brutal opening stretch against teams like Springfield Central, and they will add wins against easier opponents.
Who should I pay more attention to?
Though I don't put much stock into these first power rankings, they do help me catch some blind spots and highlight teams I should follow more closely.
Duxbury, as mentioned, is obviously one team who I didn't even have in the "next five" of my Top 10 honorable mentions. Division 2 is just ridiculously stacked, even more than my lofty expectations. Walpole (No. 8 in the power rankings), Hingham (No. 11), Northampton (No. 13) and Dracut (No. 14) deserve more of my attention.
In Division 1, Woburn (No. 6) continues to carry the torch in the Middlesex League, but Arlington (No. 12), at 6-1, has had a massive breakout season. I'm also noticing undefeated Hopkinton at No. 7 and Andover returning to the forefront at No. 8.
Medway sits second in Division 3 behind Bishop Fenwick, undefeated and boosted by its Tri-Valley League schedule so far. I am behind on giving North Reading (No. 3) its flowers. The Hornets are 7-0 with an important win over Cape Ann League rival Pentucket, a team I expect to be in the title mix.
We're getting some clarity on the top teams in Divisions 4 and 5 as well. Millis (6-2) leads Division 4, followed by Frontier (6-1). Hopedale (7-2) has a solid gap on the field in Div. 5 and is trailed by Saint John Paul II (5-1) and Drury (4-3).
How is the new MOV cap affecting things?
The most important part of this year's MIAA power rankings is that the maximum margin of victory score has dropped from 10 to six. This decision, was voted through near-unanimously by the basketball committee in October and affirmed by the Board of Directors. The committee had previously done research and said the change would have had almost no effect on the state tournament seedings last year. It would allow coaches to more freely make on-court decisions without worrying about chasing a double-digit win.
We're still trying to understand its impact this season. As an observer, I think it currently hurts elite teams like Medfield and others the most because it dampers the weight of their blowout victories. That being said, I also think the change will be felt most earlier in the season. As time goes on and the best teams keep winning, they should climb the power rankings with their margin-of-victory numbers staying high. If anything, it may just lessen the perceived gap between teams in the spreadsheets.
The bottom line, with the MOV cap and with these early power rankings in general: Don't overreact. Just let the season play out.
