Let the chatter begin.
The first release of the MIAA boys basketball power rankings came on Friday morning, and it’s sure to create opinions across the state. These rankings give us our first look at what the state tournament bracket could look like come February, with the top 32 teams in each division making up the top 32 seeds. Since the MIAA’s debuted this format with the statewide tournament in 2021, it’s been a relative success.
The MIAA made a minor tweak to its rankings formula this season. Before, the average margin of victory calculation would be capped at 10 points in both directions; it’s now six points. The other component of the formula, which is the opponents’ rating, stayed the same.
It’s important to note that this is the first of many updates over the next six weeks, with the MIAA releasing new rankings every Tuesday and Friday throughout the rest of the regular season. These rankings will most likely change drastically between now and the state tournament bracket release on Feb. 21. But here are five initial takeaways on the boys basketball rankings, including surprise teams and expectations going forward. You can find the full rankings listed here.
BC High is the overall No. 1 team
Before Friday’s release, I was personally hypothesizing who might debut as the No. 1 team in Division 1. Central Catholic, Attleboro and Andover were among the teams that made my list. BC High was not one of them.
The Eagles have the best overall rating in MIAA’s first release – with an 11.7782 rating – as they just edged out No. 2 Bridgewater Raynham and No. 3 Central Catholic for the top spot. With a 5-1 record, BC High got the top spot by virtue of the highest opponent rating of any team in MIAA, with a brutal schedule that has included Cambridge, B-R, Archbishop Williams and St. John’s (Shrewsbury). B-R might have a shout that it should be No. 1 – the Trojans beat BC High by 15 on Dec. 20 – but that’s how the formula works.
We’ll see if longtime coach Bill Loughnane’s young team can keep up at the top of the rankings. Their difficult schedule continues with tough tests this week against Central Catholic on Sunday and then Malden Catholic on Friday.
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How have early expectations met reality?
Making preseason rankings can often be like throwing darts. But most of the teams we expected to be good debuted high in the power rankings. In Division 1, No. 2 B-R (5-1), No. 3 Central Catholic (5-1), No. 8 Beverly (5-1), No. 10 Attleboro (6-1) and No. 15 Winchester (8-0) are looking good and I expect them to stay hovering around that Top 10 mix for the rest of the season.
Our preseason Division 2 favorites are playing up to expectations, too. St. Mary’s, in its first season in the division, is No. 1 with a whopping 11.0382 rating that clears the second-best team, Oliver Ames (7.7759 rating), by more than three rating points. Masconomet, my preseason Div. 2 pick, is at No. 4 in the rankings after a 5-0 start. Don’t sleep on Pope Francis, which has a 6-1 record and sits No. 6 in the rankings out of Western Mass., and Holland (Burke) and Burlington, at No. 7 and 8 respectively, are in the mix, as expected.
There weren’t any big surprises in Division 4, either, where Wareham (6-2) opened as the top team, with Millbury close behind them. I watched Millbury win a thrilling game over Abington earlier this season, and the veteran Woolies are legit.
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Who’s being slept on?
While you shouldn’t always read a lot into the first power rankings, they almost always reveal blind spots and teams that weren’t totally on my radar during the opening weeks of the season. It’s notable that St. John’s (Shrewsbury), behind junior captain Jackson Fournier, is No. 5 in the D1 rankings after a 6-1 start under second-year coach John Ginnity. Bishop Feehan, with a signature win over B-R, opens at No. 9 in D1 on the strength of big man Brody Bumila.
In Division 2, Archbishop Williams debuted at No. 3 in the rankings after a 4-2 start that included a win over Bishop Feehan and six-point loss to BC High. Jack Olinto and transfer Jadon Beatty are pacing the surging Bishops.
There were some surprises at the top of Division 3, Springfield Sci-Tech is the first No. 1 team of the season. Hanover is looking like the Patriot League favorite after a 7-0 start that put them to No. 2, and Salem is at No. 3 thanks to a 4-0 start.
Who should rise in the rankings?
With the rankings being based off of such a small sample size, changes should be expected as the new formula shakes out and the best teams separate themselves with consistent winning.
No. 16 Lowell should move up the rankings as the season moves and its Merrimack Valley Conference schedule improves their opponent rating. Springfield Central, which sits at No. 21, should move up higher, and I think No. 29 Brookline – which dominated Portsmouth, our No. 1 team in New Hampshire – is better than its ranking. Surprisingly, Newton North currently sits at No. 31. That should change. Last season’s Div. 1 runner-up is 5-3 with wins over Brookline and Needham and the Tigers have the experience to keep improving as the season continues.
Picturing the top 20
Here are the top 20 teams in MIAA, regardless of division, based on the first power rankings release. This will almost certainly change, but it’s still fun to look at. The top 20 includes 13 teams from Div. 1, three teams from Div. 2 and four teams from Div. 3.
1. BC High — 11.78 (Div. 1)
2. Bridgewater-Raynham — 11.52 (Div. 1)
3. Central Catholic — 11.34 (Div. 1)
4. St. Mary’s — 11.04 (Div. 2)
5. Malden Catholic — 10.12 (Div. 1)
6. Saint John’s — 9.82 (Div. 1)
7. Andover — 9.77 (Div. 1)
8. Springfield Sci-Tech — 9.71 (Div. 3)
9. Cambridge — 9.21 (Div. 1)
10. Beverly — 9.20 (Div. 1)
11. Hanover — 9.06 (Div. 3)
12. Bishop Feehan — 8.99 (Div. 1)
13. Attleboro — 8.62 (Div. 1)
14. Needham — 8.51 (Div. 1)
15. New Bedford — 8.34 (Div. 1)
16. Brockton — 8.02 (Div. 1)
17. Salem — 7.81 (Div. 3)
18. Oliver Ames — 7.78 (Div. 2)
19. Archbishop Williams — 7.74 (Div. 2)
20. Tewksbury — 7.72 (Div. 3)
