Where did the MIAA basketball season go?
Next Thursday is the official cutoff date of the MIAA regular season before the state tournament brackets are set to be revealed on Feb. 22. Two days later, the playoffs begin as every team chases a path to the state finals that take place exactly a month from this weekend.
On Friday morning, the MIAA released its penultimate power rankings update of the winter (next Tuesday will be the final one) before the bracket release. These power rankings – you can see Friday's update here – become the seeds for the state tournaments, so with a week left, they give us a good idea of what the fields and potential matchups will be.
There are still games to be played over the next week, but there likely won’t be any significant changes made to the rankings between now and the bracket reveal. Here are five boys takeaways from Friday’s update as we start looking ahead to next weekend.
The race for home-court advantage
Claiming a top-four seed has immense value for each division; it guarantees home-court advantage through the quarterfinals before the semifinals and championship are held at neutral sites. In Division 1, No. 1 Franklin – which clinched the Hockomock League this week – has essentially sealed a top-four seed, boasting an 18.3075 rating that is more than two rating points higher than the second-ranked team. We can also probably assume that Attleboro (15.8265) and Newton North (14.5653) will get one, too. But the race for the No. 4 seed is close. Lowell (13.8670) currently has the edge, but Central Catholic (13.7001) is right on their tail.
In Division 2, Malden Catholic (16.0042) looks like a lock to claim the No. 1 seed as it seeks a fourth straight championship. Behind them, there are four teams battling for three spots: Mansfield (15.1366), Whitman-Hanson (14.1384), Pope Francis (13.6559) and Oliver Ames (13.5513). A top-four seed would benefit Pope Francis more than any other team given they’re located in Springfield.
St. Mary’s (10.6950), Norwell (10.4269), Shawsheen Tech (9.8519) and Newburyport (9.1499) are in the driver’s seat for the top-four seeds in Division 3, with Greater Lawrence (8.5528) having work to do this week. Lunenberg (7.2503), Monument Mountain (6.7668) and Millbury (6.6131) are fighting for the No. 4 spot in Division 4. In Division 5, Pioneer Valley (6.4417), Hopedale (3.2260) and Granby (2.9814) look good for the top three seeds, with English High (2.1622), John J. Duggan Academy (2.0619) and Drury (2.0536) battling for the No. 4 seed.
Top 20 overall teams
The MIAA power rankings give us a glimpse of who the best teams are regardless of division based on their overall ratings. This has no bearing on the seedings, but it’s still fun to look at. Here are the top 20 overall teams, according to the MIAA’s ratings:
1. Franklin (Div. 1) – 18.307
2. Malden Catholic (Div. 2) – 16.004
3. Attleboro (Div. 1) – 15.826
4. Mansfield (Div. 2) – 15.136
5. Newton North (Div. 1) – 14.565
6. Whitman-Hanson (Div. 2) – 14.138
7. Lowell (Div. 1) – 13.867
8. Central Catholic (Div. 1) – 13.700
9. Pope Francis (Div. 2) – 13.655
10. Oliver Ames (Div. 2) – 13.551
11. Winchester (Div. 1) – 12.926
12. Bridgewater-Raynham (Div. 1) – 12.191
13. Marshfield (Div. 1) – 12.143
14. North Quincy (Div. 2) – 12.095
15. Plymouth South (Div. 2) – 12.089
16. Masconomet (Div. 2) – 11.741
17. Springfield Central (Div. 1) – 11.710
18. Andover (Div. 1) – 11.460
19. Somerset Berkley (Div. 2) – 11.286
20. Leominster (Div. 2) – 11.267
Merrimack Valley as good as expected
When the first MIAA power rankings came out on Jan. 10, I wrote that the Merrimack Valley Conference wasn’t getting the love it deserved. Central Catholic was the highest-rated team at No. 7 in Division, and Lowell was only at No. 16. I said then that I expected the rankings for the MVC teams to improve as the season progressed and their schedules got harder, and I was right.
Lowell checks in at No. 4, Central Catholic is at No. 5 and Andover is at No. 10 – all rankings higher than where they debuted a month ago. North Andover, which debuted at No. 29, is up to No. 21, and despite an uneven 10-7 season, I think the Scarlet Knights are a sneaky sleeper; five of their losses are to Lowell, Central and Andover, and they have a senior-laden group that made the round of 8 last winter. Tewksbury (No. 11 in Div. 2) should be another tough out.
Who’s on the bubble?
To qualify for the state tournament, teams must finish in the top 32 of their division’s power rankings or hold a record that’s .500 or better.
In Division 1, spots 30-35 are separated by about one rating point: Methuen (7.6401), Putnam Vo-Tech (7.4220), Durfee (7.3751), Algonquin (7.1041), Acton-Boxborough (6.9578) and Shrewsbury (6.6406).
It’s even tighter in Division 2, where spots 31-35 are separated by less than a tenth of a point: Minnechaug (4.2288), Silver Lake (4.1850), Shepherd Hill (4.1634), Archbishop Williams (4.1380) and Sharon (4.1346). Canton (3.9282) and South High (3.7109) are also within striking distance. The numbers are also razor-thin at the No. 32 cutline in Division 3, but most of those teams have a .500 or better record anyway. In Division 4, No. 31 Monomoy, No. 32 HS of Commerce, No. 33 Nantucket and No. 34 West Bridgewater are all under .500 and at the mercy of the ratings.
What matchups could we see in the state tournament?
It is obviously very early to project matchups given the brackets aren’t finalized, but it’s still fun to think about. Given the current seedings, here are three non-Final Four matchups that would excite me:
No. 5 Central Catholic at No. 4 Lowell, Div. 1 quarterfinals: The two top teams in the MVC, this would be a rematch of Jan. 17, when Central got the best of Lowell at home. The next week is vital for both of these teams as they battle for a top-four seed and home-court advantage in this potential matchup. But either way, another matchup between Lowell’s Tzar Powell-Aparicio and Central’s Javi Lopez – two of the best guards in the state – would be awesome.
No. 9 Somerset Berkley at No. 1 Malden Catholic, Div. 2 round of 16: This could potentially be the Lancers’ toughest roadblock in their chase for a fourth consecutive championship. This would be a rematch of last season’s Div. 2 semifinals, where MC won by two; it was their only game that was decided by single digits in the tournament.
No. 11 Arlington at No. 6 Winchester, Div. 1 round of 16: Yes, another rematch. The two Middlesex League rivals met twice this season and they were both thrillers. Arlington won on an overtime buzzer-beater on Dec. 20 before Winchester evened the series at home on Jan. 31 in a game that featured an incredible atmosphere at Winchester High School. A playoff game there would notch it up another level.
