The first MIAA boys basketball power rankings update of the season dropped on Friday morning. Let the discussion commence.
Since its inception in 2021-22 – when the MIAA debuted statewide tournaments across all divisions – these power rankings ultimately determine the playoff seeding for the state tournaments, with the top 32 teams in each division making up the first 32 seeds.
A refresher on the formula: every team’s overall “rating” is the sum of two components: its average margin of victory (with a 10-point maximum MOV for wins of 10-plus points), plus their opponent rating (the average of their opponents’ overall ratings).
It’s worth noting that it’s obviously early in the season, and Friday’s release (find the rankings here) is based on a small sample size. It’s the first of many updates throughout the rest of the winter, with new rankings coming every Tuesday and Friday. But here are five initial takeaways from the first boys basketball power rankings.
1. The Hockomock Leagues rules the first power rankings
If there wasn’t already enough hype for Friday night’s big Hockomock clash between Attleboro and Franklin, the first MIAA power rankings poured gas on the fire. The two teams are ranked 1-2 in Division 1 in the first update.
Attleboro has the highest overall rating in MIAA after its 7-0 start, with good wins over Taunton, Cambridge Rindge & Latin and Mansfield to open the season. Franklin is not too far behind, fourth in the overall ratings after its 8-0 start with an average margin of victory of 9.75, best in Div. 1. It’s fair to assume the winner of Friday night’s game – which is at Franklin – will take the No. 1 ranking, at least in Div. 1.
It doesn’t stop at those two. Mansfield, behind a 6-1 start and the highest opponent rating in Div. 2, is ranked No. 2 in Div. 2 and is actually ahead of Franklin by one spot in the overall ratings. The quality and depth of the Hockomock this season is reflected in these rankings: Oliver Ames (No. 9 in Div. 2), Milford (No. 13 in Div. 2), Stoughton (No. 20 in Div. 2), Taunton (No. 20 in Div. 1) and Foxboro (No. 7 in Div. 3).
RELATED: 5 takeaways from first MIAA girls basketball power rankings release
2. Division 2 still runs through Malden Catholic
The Lancers, the three-time defending Div. 2 state champion, rest in their familiar position of No. 1 in the Div. 2 power rankings, and they’re No. 2 in the overall ratings. Led by Navy commit Matt Gaffney, Malden Catholic is off to a 6-0 start that includes five wins by double digits. The Lancers passed a tough test at Xaverian on Tuesday, coming back to win by four. They'll face some tough tests in the Catholic Conference, but there’s no denying they’re the cream of the crop in Div. 2.
3. The computers aren’t rating the Merrimack Valley Conference highly – yet
I’ve been ranking MVC teams highly in my own Top 10, which includes Lowell and Central Catholic in my top five, but it might take a bit for the MIAA rankings to catch up to how good the league is. Central Catholic checks in at No. 7 in Div. 1, with Andover at No. 12 and Lowell at No. 16 – all rankings, in my opinion, that are lower than I expect them to be by March.
Like I mentioned, these rankings are based on an incomplete sample size. A team like Lowell, which has a low 2.42 opponent rating as of Friday, should see that go up soon with harder teams on their upcoming schedule. I certainly expect North Andover, which debuted at No. 29 in Div. 1 after an up-and-down 3-3 start, to climb with a schedule that evens out a bit after a brutal slate to begin the season.
4. Who are some other eye-catchers?
Friday’s rankings, though they certainly won’t tell us how the seedings will look in March, do highlight some teams that may not have necessarily been on my radar to start the season. Let’s give some deserved love to Western Mass.; Springfield Central is fifth in Div. 1 with a 14.68 rating and wins over Longmeadow and Holland School of Technology (formerly Burke); 6-0 Pope Francis is third in Div. 2 with a 16.36 rating; 6-0 Holyoke is fifth in Div. 2.
Bridgewater-Raynham is sixth in Div. 1 behind a 6-3 record and tough 10.25 opponent rating, with strong double-digit wins over Durfee and Xaverian. The Trojans highlight a Southeast Conference that has three teams – including Durfee and New Bedford – among the first 13 seeds in Div. 1.
The Patriot League is well-represented, too, with 6-0 Marshfield at No. 3 in Div. 1, 7-0 Whitman-Hanson at No. 4 in Div. 2, 5-1 Plymouth South at No. 6 in Div. 2 and 7-1 North Quincy – led by stud freshman duo Aidan McGrath and Lucas Short – right behind them at No. 7.
Two City League schools that lost elite talent to prep schools after last season – Charlestown and Holland School of Technology – are back in the hunt in their divisions. Charlestown debuts at No. 3 in Div. 3, while Holland checks in at No. 4 in Div. 4. Bourne, a state championship finalist last winter, is at No. 3 in Div. 4.
5. Picturing the top 20
The power rankings’ primary mission is to accurately seed the divisions for the state tournament, but it’s also fun to take a look at the overall rankings across divisions, since the ratings formula theoretically translates regardless of division. Here’s what the formula believes is the overall top 20:
1. Attleboro — 18.87 (Div. 1)
2. Malden Catholic — 17.623 (Div. 2)
3. Mansfield — 17.48 (Div. 2)
4. Franklin — 16.98 (Div. 1)
5. Pope Francis — 16.36 (Div. 2)
6. Marshfield — 15.77 (Div. 1)
7. Whitman-Hanson Reg. — 15.55 (Div. 2)
8. Newton North — 15.04 (Div. 1)
9. Holyoke (D2) — 14.91 (Div. 2)
10. Springfield Central — 14.68 (Div. 1)
11. Plymouth South — 14.66 (Div. 2)
12. North Quincy — 14.40 (Div. 2)
13. Bridgewater-Raynham — 13.58 (Div. 1)
14. Central Catholic — 13.54 (Div. 1)
15. New Bedford — 13.48 (Div. 1)
16. Xaverian — 13.16 (Div. 1)
17. Catholic Memorial — 12.93 (Div. 1)
18. Holland School of Technology — 12.67 (Div. 4)
19. Somerset Berkley — 12.46 (Div. 2)
20. Arlington — 12.37 (Div. 1)
