My lesson I've learned from covering the NEPSAC girls season so far: No result is guaranteed.
In two months, I've witnessed multiple overtime games, buzzer-beaters and improbable comebacks at all different levels of prep. The winter has given us constant entertainment and kept me on my toes as I cover the New England landscape.
We're approximately halfway to the postseason. Just when I thought I had clear favorites in every class, a few upsets occurred that forced me to adjust. It's a reminder that basketball is not played on paper and that any team can be vulnerable on any given day.
Here are my big-picture thoughts on the season so far.
MORE MIDSEASON REPORTS: NEPSAC Boys | MIAA Boys | MIAA Girls
As good as advertised
1. Tabor (12-1)— Until last Saturday's slip-up against New Hampton, the Seawolves had been in control of every game they played this season. Even in last Friday's 78-71 shootout against Nobles, Tabor pulled away in the second quarter and kept the Bulldogs from getting all the way back into the contest. We knew Kaelyn Carroll and Liv Rodrigues would be their star selves, and Ava Black has returned from her PCL injury better than ever. I've also been impressed by the depth of contributors on offense, which has helped keep everyone fresh.
2. Nobles (13-1) — The story is similar for the Bulldogs, who have only lost to Tabor. They have Christina Pham hitting 3s from anywhere on the floor, Ashley Dinges blocking shots and dominating the boards, and Jasmyn Cooper filling any role she's given. Like Tabor, Nobles also has depth pieces emerging: Vanessa Ellis, Brynn Bryant and Aliyah Allston-Pujols.
3. Tilton (11-2) — The Rams have only lost to the above two teams and have been unfazed by anyone else. Colleen Phiri remains an underrated star and Bela Cucuta is adjusting well as a NEPSAC transfer. But I don't think I've given the Rams enough credit for their own depth. When I've seen them, I've been especially impressed by Brooke Golden's defense and athleticism at center. Maddie McCaffery can also be a game-changer if she catches fire off the bench.
4. New Hampton (9-4) — A lot of people liked New Hampton as a preseason Class AAA sleeper, and though it's been a bumpy ride, the Huskies are showing why. They've played in some of the most unpredictable, nail-biting NEPSAC games so far, but are winning, including against Tabor. Serenity Lancaster has been the immediate-impact transfer center we expected and Elyse Ngenda has taken a leap forward as a junior.
5. Northfield Mount Hermon (10-3) — NMH has kept the rest of Class AA at arm's length and has yet to lose to an in-class opponent. Postgrad transfer Grace Minihane has been perhaps the best NEPSAC newcomer, but the rotation is balanced throughout. Any of Olivia Fleming, Breena Hannon or Zariah Ottley are capable of leading the score sheet on a given night. NMH has also held every opponent except Nobles under 60 points.
3 surprises so far
Newman and Darrow make the leap — When I saw Newman (a new program) and Darrow (formerly in Class D) in Class AA, I was pretty skeptical. Sure, the two teams had brought in a ton of transfers and new players, but there's no way they'd be contending that quickly... right?
I was wrong. Newman briefly appeared in our Top 10 and is right on the edge currently. The Cardinals run a fun, high-tempo offense led by versatile wings Elliana Scalabrine and Gabby Middleton. Darrow, meanwhile, plays lockdown defense and has guards Amanda Smith and Jill Dingler leading the way. Both teams are going to be legitimate tough outs in the Class AA playoffs.
First-year coaches succeeding — Several prominent NEPSAC schools changed head coaches in the offseason. Beyond Darrow (Abby Streeter) and Newman (Sam Doner) above, many have kept their teams relevant and some have even surpassed my expectations.
Rivers is 9-5 and a Class B title contender under new coach Kenny Small Jr. The Red Wings just lost to reigning class champ St. George's (7-5), which has won three of its last four games under Angelina Marazzi's new leadership. Greens Farms and Middlesex are two other Class B contenders we've already covered who are thriving with new head coaches.
Worcester Academy earns a shoutout too. Even at 7-8, the Hilltoppers have joined the Top 10 by giving some of NEPSAC's best teams real challenges. Dan Sullivan deserves credit for taking the group farther than I expected in his first year.
No clear favorite in Class B — We've mentioned schools like Rivers, Greens Farms, Middlesex and St. George's, who could each push for the playoffs. The reality right now is that while all of these teams are strong, none — nor any Class B program — has separated as a true championship favorite.
St. Luke's was a team I really liked preseason, but the Storm have been up and down when they face difficult competition. I say that after they just went out and beat Rivers last week. Teams like Cushing, Suffield, Beaver and Mount St. Charles show flashes, but like with the others, they haven't built an extended stretch of success yet.
What about 11-0 Berkshire? Maybe the Bears are the team to beat — but they haven't really been tested yet. They play Newman on Saturday and then have some tougher matchups in the next few weeks. I'll be interested to see how they fare.
Who's in the MVP conversation?
This is a complicated question for multiple reasons. We're talking about the entire NEPSAC, not just class by class. Many of the top teams have balanced scoring among a few players, not a single centerpiece. And I'm not just here to list all the great players — this is a selective group. I'm starting the conversation with five names.
We have to lead with Tabor and Nobles, and I'm forcing myself (and readers) to choose just one player from each school's Big Three. Kaelyn Carroll gets the very slight edge for Tabor (though I'd understand leaning towards Ava Black). Nobles is also tricky, but I've watched Christina Pham singlehandedly swing multiple games with her shotmaking. She would be my choice.
What about other schools? Tilton is right behind Tabor and Nobles, and Colleen Phiri fills so many important roles for the Rams. New Hampton guard Elyse Ngenda has been one of the best big-moment playmakers I've seen. And looking beyond Class AAA, it's hard not to notice the huge numbers Caterina Ravosa is putting up at Wilbraham and Monson.
Of course, this is only the rough halfway mark of the season. I expect several other stars to assert themselves in the discussion as we approach the playoffs.
3 questions for the second half
How many AAA teams are true championship contenders?
A week ago, my answer probably would have been two. Tabor and Nobles were undefeated and cruising past almost everyone. Then Tabor took down Nobles in their head-to-head meeting — and lost the next day to New Hampton.
Meanwhile, the Huskies' up-and-down season can be summed up in the last week, which included beating Tabor, losing to St. Andrew's and losing to Tilton. The Rams have only lost to Tabor and Nobles but are on a seven-game win streak and might be ready for the rematches. Throw in St. Andrew's following that win, Hoosac (who took Nobles to overtime in December) and Dexter Southfield (who just beat Northfield Mount Hermon in AA, and who has lost to New Hampton twice by a combined three points), and it feels like all seven Class AAA squads have a shot at wins in the postseason.
So who's for real? I hope to figure that out in the next month.
Can anyone in Class A challenge Loomis Chaffee?
I asked this question before the season and it's still unclear. The Pelicans could probably fit in the "as good as advertised" tier too; they've only lost to Tabor and Nobles (and that was with Alicia Mitchell injured) and no Class A team has come close to beating them yet. That being said, they haven't faced two of the premier challengers: Sacred Heart and Hotchkiss. Loomis gets those matchups on Jan. 31 and Feb. 26, respectively.
Who makes the Class B postseason field — and who misses out?
As hinted at above, some quality programs are going to miss out on the eight-team playoffs. I'd consider Rivers, St. Luke's, Greens Farms and Berkshire safe enough at this point. So only four of St. George's, Middlesex, Cushing, Mount St. Charles, Beaver and Suffield will earn a spot. That doesn't even include Lawrence Academy, last year's No. 3 seed led by Jasmine Becotte. Or Groton, led by standout junior forward Camryn Dunn. Or Brooks, with Summer Warren and Jules Giordano.
Whew. Class B is going to be a battle.
