You want heavyweight matchups? Look no further than the MIAA boys basketball championships.
A thrilling postseason will enter its final act this weekend at the Tsongas Center in Lowell, where five state champions will be crowned starting Friday night. This tournament has seen it all so far – a wild buzzer-beater, overtime thrillers and legendary individual performances. It’s all setting up for what could be an epic conclusion.
The table is set. Division 1 will see the preseason favorite take on one of the best Cinderella teams in recent tournament history. Division 2 will deliver an exciting regular-season rematch, while Division 3 brings a 1-vs.-2 showdown. There could be a repeat champion in Division 4, and Division 5 features a pair of unexpected finalists.
Who will hoist championship trophies and celebrate across the Tsongas Center floor this weekend? It’s time to make our predictions.
Full schedule for the 2026 MIAA basketball championships
Division 1
No. 1 Central Catholic vs. No. 14 Bishop Feehan
Sunday, March 15, 6 p.m.
Don’t let the 14 seed attached to Bishop Feehan fool you; the Shamrocks hovered around the 5-8 seed range throughout the winter and have proved their legitimacy in this tournament with wins over Needham, Bridgewater-Raynham and Andover to reach the final. This has been one of the most unforgettable runs in MIAA tournament history, which has included two multi-overtime victories (4OT vs. Needham) and a legendary stretch from star 6-foot-9 forward Brody Bumila. He’s averaging 42 points and 20 rebounds per game, including a ridiculous 51-point, 22-rebound line in Wednesday’s semifinal win over Andover.
This is such a fascinating matchup. Central Catholic, our preseason favorite led by arguably the best player in the state in Javi Lopez, hasn’t lost in-state since Dec. 19. But the Raiders have looked mortal in this tournament, with one-possession victories over St. John’s Shrewsbury and Beverly before surviving an overtime thriller in the semifinals vs. Springfield Central. To survive and advance is all that matters. But … is Bumila unstoppable?
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I’m stating the obvious, but the key of this game will be how Central finds a way to neutralize Bumila, which no team has been able to do in this tournament. Keeping him off the glass and denying him post entries at the hoop is critical, but so much easier said than done. This is an enormous matchup for Central’s 6-foot-3 sophomore Elkin Pena, who is one of the best rebounders in MIAA with his length, athleticism and toughness. But this will be a team effort to hold down Bumila. Look for Drew O’Keefe to get his hands dirty, too.
Can Central get Bumila in foul trouble? The Raiders, led by Lopez, should be able to challenge him defensively at the rim. Ultimately, I think Central has enough. The Raiders have played opponents this season – like Bergen Catholic and Brewster Academy – that have physical and size advantages against them, and have had success against them. I don’t think this matchup will faze them, and I’ve always thought this was Lopez’s time. I don’t think he gets denied.
Prediction: Central Catholic 75, Bishop Feehan 71 (OT)
Division 2
No. 1 St. Mary’s vs. No. 3 Masconomet
Friday, March 13, 8 p.m.
When Masconomet lost to St. Mary’s on the road back on Jan. 12, coach Jaycob Morales told me he hoped it would be a “wake-up call” for his team. Two months later, the Chieftains get a rematch for the state championship.
I always thought that Jan. 12 meeting was closer than the 14-point spread indicated. Masco actually led early in the third quarter before St. Mary’s ultimately pulled away. A lot of that had to do with Spartans star wing Rolky Brea-Arias, who faced early foul trouble before returning and making a big impact. But Masco star Jimmy Farrell, though he was brilliant that night, was fighting a fever. He and the Chieftains seemed to fade down the stretch in a tough environment.
Masco will look a bit different for this championship rematch. Star forward Jamason Vella is out (team violation), which will make the task against Brea-Arias much harder. But Masco has continued to find ways in the tournament without him. Thomas Denton is playing his best basketball of the season. Can he and his teammates keep Brea-Arias off the boards? This game might come down to a shotmaking duel between Farrell and St. Mary’s sophomore Jake Fortier, too. This is a toss-up game and I can see a path to victory for both sides, but I have to stick with my pre-tournament Masco pick, even if they’re now without Vella. Their defense has continued to be terrific and I think this group has an extra edge of motivation to find a way.
Prediction: Masconomet 57, St. Mary’s 53
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Division 3
No. 1 Hanover vs. No. 2 Salem
Saturday, March 14, 6 p.m.
It’s fair to say I may have been underselling Hanover, which is 23-1 entering the state final. Led by senior Ryan Mutschler, the balanced Hawks have bothered teams defensively with their length as they’ve rolled to four double-digit tournament wins. They threw a mix of man and zone defenses that disrupted Greater Lawrence in the semifinals.
But I think Hanover will meet its match in Salem. The Witches have shooters who can combat the Hawks’ zone if they go to that again. I think junior Elian Rodriguez – who has a pair of 30-point games in this tournament in addition to another 28-point outing – will be the best player on the floor, capable of coming up clutch in big moments. And again, I can’t go against my tournament prediction here. One hundred years since Salem captured the first Massachusetts championship, the Witches make history again.
Prediction: Salem 65, Hanover 62
Division 4
No. 1 Wareham vs. No. 3 Georgetown
Saturday, March 14, 2 p.m.
They’re back! Georgetown, the defending D4 champion, is looking for a repeat behind the two stars – Brendan Loewen and Irvin Zapata – who fueled last year’s title triumph. The Royals have had to deal with a sudden coaching change after first-year coach Kevin Fair’s departure last month, but they’ve stayed true to their identity under interim coach Ted Schruender. They have great poise in pressure moments going back to last season’s championship, and it showed again in the state semifinals when they erased a late deficit to beat No. 2 Millbury.
But Wareham seems like it’s on a mission this year, evidenced by the way it’s handled teams in this tournament with relative ease. The Vikings’ four tournament wins have been by an average margin of 18.5 points. They own a double-digit win over Div. 1 finalist Bishop Feehan this season. A dynamic group featuring Aaron Cote, Amare Rose and Malikhi Tavares play with speed on both ends and are relentless.
Prediction: Wareham 74, Georgetown 66
Division 5
No. 6 Holbrook vs. No. 8 Hoosac Valley
Sunday, March 15, 2 p.m.
The Division 5 tournament has quietly been the most unpredictable of the five divisions; none of the top four seeds made the Final Four, opening a path for two unexpected finalists.
This matchup features two of the best scorers in the state: Holbrook’s Allen Brown Jr., a career 2,000-point scorer who poured in 46 points in the Bulldogs’ semifinal win over No. 7 Prospect Hill, against Hoosac Valley’s Adan Wicks, who’s averaging 30.3 points per game in the state tournament, including a 38-point effort on nine 3-pointers in an upset over top-seeded Drury. This game could come down to which star gets hotter.
Both teams have shown strong mental toughness and resilience in winning close tournament games. But I give a slight edge to Hoosac Valley, which has another stud in senior Qwanell Bradley, who forms a difficult duo with Wicks. Both of them have state title game experience after losing to New Mission in the final two years ago and shouldn’t be fazed by the moment.
Prediction: Hoosac Valley 64, Holbrook 60
