The NEPSAC girls basketball quarterfinals certainly entertained. But in the brackets, things played out about as expected.
Between classes AAA through B Small, only two seeds managed an upset. I went 14-for-17 on my predictions, missing Phillips Andover, Taft and Berkshire's wins.
That's a pretty solid hit rate. But the semifinals turn things up a notch with less margin for error between opponents. I only predicted five of my eight finalists correctly last year, so I'm hungry to improve.
Here's who I think will be suiting up at Nobles on Super Sunday in classes AAA through B Small.
Podcast: Quarterfinals reactions
Class AAA
No. 1 Tilton vs. No. 4 New Hampton
This is a great neighboring rivalry and I can't wait to see it in the NEPSAC playoffs. Tilton won both regular season games, but they didn't come easy, with 60-52 and 63-57 final scores.
I expect to see many Bella Owumi vs. Elyse Ngenda individual battles, which is always a treat. Tilton will again ask a lot of its two centers, Brooke Golden and Ava Bryant, as they try to contain Serenity Lancaster. New Hampton has the guard defenders to keep Tilton star Bela Cucuta relatively in check. So if these teams are even and most of the easy looks get taken away, who has the advantage?
I'll stick with Tilton because they seem to find a way consistently in this matchup. I believe they just have a bit more offense capable of knocking down tough shots.
Prediction: Tilton 58, New Hampton 54
WHAT WE LEARNED:Â Takeaways from the quarterfinals
No. 2 Hoosac vs. No. 3 Tabor
Again, another awesome AAA game between two legitimate championship threats. Hoosac swept the regular season series with 11-point and eight-point victories — two of Tabor's four losses all season — and I'm going to stick with that trend.
This is a matchup where Hoosac can really leverage its size and physicality. If Tabor's going to focus on stopping Anna Moser and Tanavia Turpin, how does it measure up against unique 6-foot-2 wing Uliana Doronina or explosive guard A'briyah Cunningham? I think it asks a lot of a Seawolves team that doesn't have much size.
How can Tabor win? Shoot the lights out, which the Seawolves are capable of, and fly in transition. This is a real statement opportunity for Corinne Lomax; she'll have to lead the rebounding effort and play hard-nosed defense all game.
Prediction: Hoosac 62, Tabor 55
BRACKET TRACKERS: Class AAA bracket | Class AA bracket | Class A bracket | Class B Large, B Small, C brackets
Class AA
No. 1 Darrow vs. No. 4 Northfield Mount Hermon
The Class AA semifinals mirror last year's matchups with a notable distinction here — Darrow is the host and high seed. The Ducks won last year's semifinal bout and this year's regular season meeting (60-55). Their defense is so imposing. It's going to be tough for Northfield Mount Hermon to score inside as long as Darrow center DD Harcourt avoids foul trouble.
I think NMH will adjust defensively and keep Brooke Lindsey from raining down 3s, but that opens the door for Darrow's other scoring guards, like Jill Dingler, Dior Dobere and Taelor Arnold. I think the Ducks have enough weapons and a defensive fortress that'll return them to Super Sunday.
Prediction: Darrow 60, Northfield Mount Hermon 52
No. 2 Worcester Academy vs. No. 3 Wilbraham & Monson
Worcester Academy won last year's semifinal and both of this winter's regular season matchups. But I have reason to believe the Titans can break through on Saturday. Caterina Ravosa did not play in the season opener, a 49-44 loss, and she was barely back from injury in the 54-48 January overtime game at the AA Midwinter Classic. The Titans' star center has a significant matchup advantage here with no true, strong center on the other side. She can (and must) dominate offensively and play sound defense against the Hilltoppers' fast, versatile forwards.
Between Ravosa and Addison Brennan, Wilbraham & Monson can win this game with its frontcourt size. Beyond them, I think the guard talent is pretty equal. The Titans have been up and down all season, but I think this opportunity sets them up well. The counterpoint: Worcester Academy can play faster and move the ball better with more shooters. This is yet another toss-up contest.
Prediction: Wilbraham & Monson 59, Worcester Academy 55
Class A
No. 1 Loomis Chaffee vs. No. 4 Phillips Andover
These teams met way back on Dec. 13, with the Pelicans prevailing 58-54. Both sides are much improved since. Key matchups to watch begin in the frontcourt, where Phillips Andover center Emma Moore faces a tough matchup in American commit Lauren Wright. I'll also be interested in Loomis junior Leah McKenzie's impact against some of the long wings in Phillips Andover's lineup. Ultimately, I think experience and depth favor the Pelicans as they advance to yet another Class A championship game.
Prediction: Loomis Chaffee 56, Phillips Andover 47
No. 2 Sacred Heart vs. No. 6 Taft
Sacred Heart and Taft dueled on Jan. 31 in a surprising 59-50 road win for the Rhinos. Since that game, Taft is 6-3 and Sacred Heart has gone 8-1. Both these teams are clicking currently — but I think the difference is Sacred Heart's defense and a healthy Eva Wilkerson. After missing the first matchup, Wilkerson can jump in now and muck up so much of Taft's offense, which doesn't typically light up the scoreboard anyway. She and Lucianna Parrotta are significant difference-makers with their length and versatility.
Prediction: Sacred Heart 52, Taft 45
Class B Large
No. 1 St. George's vs. No. 4 Lawrence Academy
St. George's defense showed me a lot in holding St. Luke's to 50 points. The Dragons were similarly successful against Lawrence Academy in the regular season, winning 64-46 on Jan. 17. I do think the Spartans are much better since then and they ride an 11-1 surge into the semifinals. But I don't think they'll score easily with St. George's rolling out several quality wing defenders and a forward in Payton Scurry who can stop drives and protect the rim.
Prediction: St. George's 54, Lawrence Academy 44
No. 3 Brooks vs. No. 7 Berkshire
This is one of my favorite games on the calendar, with Brooks now having won 12 straight and Berkshire 8-2 in its last 10 games. After doubting the Bears against Suffield, I think they match up well against Brooks. Pearl Dickson can make a statement by locking down Brooks center Summer Warren following her big quarterfinal performance. Both of these teams can heat up behind the arc, but I think Berkshire offers more playmakers off the dribble, and Chloe Egan should fare better after facing a Suffield defense geared toward stopping her drives. This could go either way, but I'll get back on the Berkshire train after they came seconds away from Super Sunday last winter.
Prediction: Berkshire 53, Brooks 47
Class B Small
No. 1 Kimball Union vs. No. 4 Kingswood Oxford
I strongly considered sticking with the hot hand and picking the Wyverns. They're playing fantastic basketball right now and have proven they can beat top teams in this class. But it's just a matchups that favors Kimball Union in my opinion. Their two wings, Leila Portugal and Jordynn Elijah, were both awesome in the quarterfinal win against Holderness and provided a scoring punch in addition to their defense. I think it'll be harder for Kingswood Oxford to pressure the paint and create off the dribble. They could light up the perimeter again — and KUA did let Holderness get back into the game via the 3-ball — but I don't know if that's likely to repeat on the road.
Prediction: Kimball Union 58, Kingswood Oxford 50
No. 2 Ethel Walker vs. No. 3 Hamden Hall
We have one regular season game of data here: a 65-51 Hamden Hall on Jan. 31. I think the result plays out about the same. Ethel Walker relies heavily on its exciting guard play and Hamden Hall is filled with standout guard defenders. If Reilly Chernovetz and Andrea Crump play with their expected effort, Walker's will struggle to score. But they did get a confidence-building game by routing King, so entering in a rhythm could benefit the hosts.
Prediction: Hamden Hall 62, Ethel Walker 52
