The winter season is essentially a three-month study period to build a knowledge base of the NEPSAC girls basketball landscape. When playoffs roll around, it's test time.
We're going round-by-round and making our predictions for the the postseason unfolds. I have a handle on most of the 17 games I'm picking below, from Class AAA down to Class B Small. But I'd consider seven of the matchups legitimate toss-up games — including a 1-vs.-8-seed pairing.
This is my second year making NEPSAC playoff predictions. In last year's quarterfinal, I went 10-for-13. That 76.9 percent correct rate is decent, but we can do better.
Here's where I land on Wednesday's quarterfinal matchups.
Podcast: Breaking down the girls' brackets
Class AAA
BRACKET BREAKDOWN:Â Here's what to know about each team
No. 1 Tilton vs. No. 8 St. Andrew's
Tilton cruised in both head-to-head matchups during the regular season, winning each by at least 30 points. The deck is stacked in favor of the Rams. St. Andrew's has played with a limited roster for almost the entire season. They have to travel up to New Hampshire and face a team with a significant talent and depth advantage. Tilton should roll to the semifinals.
Prediction: Tilton 74, St. Andrew's 48
No. 2 Hoosac vs. No. 7 Newman
Hoosac swept Newman in the regular season, but this was a much closer battle than you might expect with 65-61 and 62-60 final scores. Newman's guards, led by Shannon Welburn (Wellesley) and Ayla Keefe, play with a high motor and aren't afraid of physical battles. That plus the growth of center Hillary Simo actually helps them measure up against Hoosac's size and toughness. However, I think Hoosac's home court advantage means a lot here, and their own defense should be locked in. I'm siding with the hosts but would consider this more even than a typical 2-vs.-7 matchup.
Prediction: Hoosac 55, Newman 50
No. 3 Tabor vs. No. 6 Dexter Southfield
This might be the most intriguing NEPSAC girls quarterfinal. I'm a huge believer in Tabor's transition play, their shooting, and the ability for Corinne Lomax (Watertown, Conn.) to completely take over the game at times. Tabor held No. 1 in our Top 10 for a week and even though I thought they'd be competitive this year, they've far exceeded my expectations.
And yet — Dexter should probably have two wins against the Seawolves. They prevailed by a point back in early January and were up 17 in this matchup last Saturday before Tabor used a 24-0 run to flip the script. Multiple of Dexter's top players are still shaking off rust from extended injury absences. Can they be ready for a full playoff-intensity game in time?
I lean Tabor, but barely.
Prediction: Tabor 68, Dexter Southfield 65
No. 4 New Hampton vs. No. 5 Nobles
New Hampton and Nobles have amplified a fantastic competitive rivalry in recent games, dating back to last year's semifinal thriller. They split the season series with each side winning at home.
We're going to get some fantastic chess matches with individual matchups. Elyse Ngenda (Bedford, N.H.) and Alannah Morantus (North Attleboro, Mass.) are two physical guards who will attack and test each other. I wonder how Nobles uses Izzy Kittredge (Medfield, Mass.) and Vanessa Ellis (Stoughton, Mass.) to slow down dominant New Hampton center Serenity Lancaster (New London, Conn.). Ultimately, I trust Ngenda and Lancaster's composure and leadership in a pressure-packed environment. Each is capable of putting the team on her back when duty calls, and in a toss-up contest like this, I expect them both to shine.
Prediction: New Hampton 60, Nobles 54
KEEP TRACK:Â Follow score and schedule updates here
Class AA
BRACKET BREAKDOWN:Â Here's what to know about each team
No. 4 Northfield Mount Hermon vs. No. 5 Marianapolis
Yep, there's only one AA quarterfinal! These class foes met once during the regular season: a 77-50 victory in favor of NMH on Jan. 21.
I expect the result to be a bit closer and Marianapolis seems to be playing great basketball recently. They have a plethora of scoring options — but NMH is one of the more reliable defenses in NEPSAC, and I expect Olivia Fleming (Windham, N.H.) and Larea Jean-Ross (Concord, Mass.) to be pests guarding the perimeter. NMH also has the offensive weapons to keep its foot on the gas pedal and advance to face Darrow.
Prediction: Northfield Mount Hermon 63, Marianapolis 51
KEEP TRACK:Â Follow score and schedule updates here
Class A
BRACKET BREAKDOWN:Â Here's what to know about each team
No. 1 Loomis Chaffee vs. No. 8 Thayer
The Pelicans are once again an imposing stronghold in Class A, and I don't see Thayer breaking through. Loomis Chaffee won this head-to-head matchup, 63-34, on Jan. 23. That was their second win of an 11-3 stretch to close out the regular season. Loomis is playing its best basketball now and that makes this a lopsided matchup.
Prediction: Loomis Chaffee 67, Thayer 45
No. 2 Sacred Heart vs. No. 7 Choate
Choate and Sacred Heart have squared off twice, with Sacred Heart winning by six points on Dec. 19 and 15 points on Jan. 23. They have matchup advantages on paper because of players like Eva Wilkerson and Ava Curto, two seniors who should really frustrate Choate's guards with their defense. I also don't know if Choate has an answer for Lucianna Parrotta and her size and scoring versatility at wing. Choate has given some quality NEPSAC teams difficult games this season, but Sacred Heart's talent is more proven.
Prediction: Sacred Heart 59, Choate 47
No. 3 Kent vs. No. 6 Taft
I don't think Agar Malek (Guilford, Conn.) gets enough credit for her talent and consistent winning impact on Kent. The Bates commit is an undersized forward at 5-foot-11 but she impacts the game in so many ways as a driver, interior scorer and defender. She's the difference-maker in my view for this contest as most of the two sides' guards and wings are evenly-matched. Kent swept the two games in the regular season and should have control in this one.
Prediction: Kent 55, Taft 44
No. 4 Phillips Andover vs. No. 5 Milton Academy
This is the best quarterfinal matchup in the class, pitting two teams with fun young rosters against each other. Milton Academy won the lone regular season meeting in a tight, 52-48 battle at home. I think they get it done again here because they just have more players they can look to for scoring.
Between Ella Trefethen (Bow, N.H.), Jen Xue (Quincy, Mass.) and Jolie Abelard (Milton, Mass.), plus others, Milton has a few pathways to generating offense. But if the Mustangs can't slow down Alani Rodriguez (Haverhill, Mass.) and Jules Stevenson (Beverly, Mass.), those two can certainly lift Andover to victory.
Prediction: Milton Academy 56, Phillips Andover 50
KEEP TRACK:Â Follow score and schedule updates here
Class B Large
BRACKET BREAKDOWN:Â Here's what to know about each team
No. 1 St. George's vs. No. 8 St. Luke's
There's some juice to this matchup after St. Luke's pulled off a comeback victory over St. George's in last year's semifinals. Those teams are very different this season, with St. George's under a new coach (Maddie Bledsoe) and St. Luke's led by a new star (Kendra Foy).
Foy (Bethel, Conn.) and St. George's point guard Gianna Nichols (Sturbridge, Mass.) will go toe-to-toe with big buckets and flashy scoring moves. I think this will be one of the more high-scoring quarterfinals in the NEPSAC playoffs, and even as a No. 8 seed, St. Luke's is coming off a big FAA championship win against Sacred Heart. But St. George's hasn't slipped up much against equal competition this year, so I'm trusting the Dragons.
Prediction: St. George's 71, St. Luke's 65
No. 2 Suffield vs. No. 7 Berkshire
This was my preseason-predicted championship game, and instead I have to choose between the two in the quarterfinals?
Suffield has the better prospect talent and hasn't suffered any red-flag losses this season. But that's also because the Tigers haven't played a very tough schedule. In fact, they've only run into one Class B Large playoff team: Berkshire, in a 58-49 Tigers win on Jan. 28.
Meanwhile, the Bears have experienced some ups and downs this season, but they're battle-tested and tough defensively. I do think this is an advantageous matchup for Suffield wings Alannah Baehr (Colchester, Conn.) and Charlotte Theriault (Palmer, Mass.). If they're on, that might be enough to advance the Tigers in what I'd consider a toss-up game. But for the Berkshire fans, I picked against my preseason title team in last year's Class B quarterfinal too — Rivers, the eventual champs.
Prediction: Suffield 54, Berkshire 50
No. 3 Brooks vs. No. 6 Proctor
Brooks has won 11 straight games, and though it lost head-to-head against Proctor back on Dec. 20, things feel a lot different two months later. Center Summer Warren (Canton, Mass.) has been a machine during this win streak and I wonder what Proctor can do to contain her impact. Brooks also defends extremely well as a team, and it's going to be hard for a Proctor squad that isn't super high-scoring to unlock a ton of points. I'm following the hot hand here.
Prediction: Brooks 56, Proctor 46
No. 4 Lawrence Academy vs. No. 5 Governor's
Like in the previous matchup, all the momentum is on Lawrence Academy's side. They're a stingy defense that has gone 10-1 in the last 11 games, even defeating one of our Top 10 teams in Worcester Academy. Meanwhile, Governor's has plummeted from its strong start with a 1-9 record over the last 10 games. I think Lawrence's defense should snuff out Gov's relative lack of offensive punch.
Prediction: Lawrence Academy 54, Governor's 40
KEEP TRACK:Â Follow score and schedule updates here
Class B Small
BRACKET BREAKDOWN:Â Here's what to know about each team
No. 1 Kimball Union vs. No. 8 Holderness
Holderness gave Kimball Union two quality games in a 12-day span, losing 61-53 and then 49-42 in late January. The forward battle between Sophie Dupeyron on Kimball Union and Kate Carboni (Fremont, N.H.) on Holderness will be fun to watch. That said, I think Kimball Union has a talent advantage on the perimeter with its guards and wings. They're also seasoned at this point after bringing back a good portion of the core that finished runner-up in Class C last March.
Prediction: Kimball Union 57, Holderness 48
No. 2 Ethel Walker vs. No. 7 King
If you're looking for a sneaky-entertaining star matchup, Walker's Liana Salamone (East Hampton, Conn.) and King's Carolyn Joo (Ridgefield, Conn.) could go bucket-for-bucket as two electric point guards. But Ethel Walker rolled in the lone head-to-head matchup, 87-58, on Dec. 13. I've seen much more from Walker's as a competitor against other strong NEPSAC teams and King is too much of an unknown here.
Prediction: Ethel Walker 70, King 50
No. 3 Hamden Hall vs. No. 6 Cushing
Cushing boasts one of B Small's true stars in Isys Dunphy (Barrington, R.I.). But Hamden Hall will laser in on her, and the Hornets have the guard and wing defenders to make Dunphy's life difficult. At the same time, this will be the first NEPSAC playoff game for transfer Maddie Benigni (East Hampton, Conn.), and I expect the Hornets' new point guard to come out firing.
Prediction: Hamden Hall 59, Cushing 43
No. 4 Kingswood Oxford vs. No. 5 Mount St. Charles
The more I learn about Kingswood Oxford, the more I feel like I've undersold their season so far. The Wyverns have a head-to-head win against Mount St. Charles (87-75) back on Dec. 21, and they also beat Ethel Walker on Feb. 18. They're 3-0 in total against the B Small field and Mount St. Charles is 0-3. However, I do think Mount St. Charles is much-improved from that first matchup, both with more time under first-year coach Antonia Corsinetti and growth from 2028 star Ava Ayotte (Burrillville, R.I.). I'm going to side with the season track record but view this as another toss-up game.
Prediction: Kingswood Oxford 52, Mount St. Charles 48
KEEP TRACK:Â Follow score and schedule updates here
