Nothing exemplifies "anything is possible" like March basketball bracket play.
Just like in college March Madness, the single-elimination aspect of the MIAA state tournament means it takes one or a few hot games for a team to shock the state. Just ask No. 30 Tewksbury, who last year pulled off a stunning upset of third-seeded Norwood in the Round of 32. Two years ago, it was Newburyport reaching the quarterfinals as a No. 27 seed.
That said — unlike the frequent chaos on the boys side, the girls tournaments have been far more predictable in the four years of statewide brackets so far. Only six times in 80 combined possibilities has a school seeded No. 7 or worse managed a run to the state semifinals. Only once has a double-digit seed gone that far.
But this winter, more than years past, feels ripe for some chaos. Here are 10 sleeper teams (a No. 7 seed or lower) who I believe could bust brackets to some degree during the next three weeks.
BRACKETOLOGY:Â See our MIAA girls tournament picks
Division 1
No. 7 Braintree
I watched Braintree in two thrilling games this season: a 78-75 barn-burning road win at Natick and a 51-50 loss to Woburn in the final seconds at the Comcast Tournament. Despite the split results, Braintree (15-5) showed it has more shooting and general offensive firepower than on its semifinalist squad from last year. Frankie Mazzini has been fantastic as a two-way guard, Eva Downing and Kate Sweeney bring shooting and driving buckets, and Izzy Rotondo goes underrated as an athletic rebounder.
Braintree doesn't have a ton of size, but fortunately for them, their quadrant of the Div. 1 bracket doesn't either. They match up well with Bishop Feehan in a possible 2-vs.-7 quarterfinal and can play up to the Shamrocks' fast pace. Trevor Hass picked Braintree to win that game in our playoff discussion and I was close to doing so.
No. 20 Newton North
It has been a wildly up-and-down winter for the Tigers, who are 9-11 with an exact zero in their margin of victory component of the MIAA power rankings. But those peaks are significant: a 67-63 win and 54-50 defeat against Natick, as well as single-digit losses to Braintree and Walpole. Allie Danis and MIT commit Nikki Rao are a strong duo. Newton North closed the season 5-3 and has shown it can hang with elite teams. I'm picking the Tigers to upset No. 13 Westford and wouldn't be shocked if they gave No. 4 Andover a battle.
GIRLS MIAA SCHEDULES:Â Division 1Â |Â Division 2Â |Â Division 3Â |Â Division 4Â |Â Division 5
Division 2
No. 7 Oliver Ames
The Tigers (15-5) just proved they belong with the highly-touted teams in Division 2 by downing second-seeded Whitman-Hanson in the Spartan Classic during February break. They might get that same matchup in the quarterfinal. Avery Gamble is among the best guards in the MIAA, averaging approximately 22 points per game. She's supported by a versatile cast of guards and wings including Maeve Horsman and Mari Rhodes. Oliver Ames has won nine of its last 10 games and enters the tournament buzzing.
No. 10 North Attleboro
But slow the roll on Oliver Ames — because they'll need to get past North Attleboro (13-7), who split the season series with a 40-35 win and 42-40 loss. With last year's head coach, Ashley Kepaa, on maternity leave, Julia Feid stepped up to lead the program and has flipped its record from 7-13 last season. Sophomore Jordan Egan and junior Ava Pratt have popped on the court and North Attleboro's defense is allowing just 38 points per game.
No. 23 Milton
But... don't overlook North Attleboro's first game either! Milton (12-9) is battle-tested in the Bay State Conference. The Wildcats notched a significant 46-41 triumph over Div. 1 Needham and also beat Brookline and Newton North as part of its 7-6 conference record. Sister duo Victoria Fish (a senior) and Sophie Fish (a junior) are the team's leading scorers. After a sluggish start, Milton is 6-2 in its last eight games and carries some momentum into the playoffs.
Division 3
No. 8 Pentucket
Pentucket (16-5) is a perennial noisemaker in Division 3, and it feels like this is one of coach John McNamara's best teams capable of a deep run. The Panthers got a tough draw in the same quadrant at top-seeded Bishop Fenwick and would also have to get past an evenly-matched possible Round of 16 game against Hanover. But I have a ton of trust in this program and its current leader, Bates commit Amelia Crowe. She's capable of taking over in short spurts but also fits into Pentucket's balanced team attack. I expect them to give Hanover and Bishop Fenwick problems, and if a few possessions go their way, the Panthers could finally break through further.
No. 10 Old Rochester
The Bulldogs are 16-4, having only been swept in two games apiece by Apponequet (a Div. 3 No. 3 seed) and Greater New Bedford (a Div. 3 No. 12 seed). They otherwise rolled through a light schedule in the South Coast Conference and did steal a 35-32 win against Bridgewater-Raynham, a No. 17 seed in Division 1. This is a pretty balanced roster with Sadie Hartley-Matteson (11.1 points per game) and Emma Johnson (10.1 points) leading the way. Opponents average just 35 points per game against ORR.
Division 4
No. 11 Hamilton-Wenham
After a rocky start, the Generals (11-9) closed the regular season 8-4. They avenged early-season losses to Whitter and Manchester Essex and swept a solid Swampscott program. Senior Margot Bryce Morris was one of the Cape Ann League's most productive scorers this winter. I've picked Hamilton-Wenham to upset sixth-seeded Southwick in the Round of 16.
No. 12 Cohasset
Cohasset's unimpressive 8-12 record means a lot less once we get to the Division 4 bracket, where it boast the fourth-strongest opponent rating in the field. And truthfully, their losses tell me more than their wins. The Skippers fell by a point to Norwell and six points to East Bridgewater, the top two teams in the South Shore League and two Div. 3 contenders. They played competitively against Braintree in Division 1 and Duxbury, a Div. 2 No. 11 seed. Addy Andrews has put together some explosive games as the leader of the team. Trevor Hass picked Cohasset to make the semifinals, and though I'm not quite that confident, I think they're capable of at least one upset win.
Division 5
No. 7 Minuteman
When we get down to Div. 5, star power can swing a playoff run. The Revolution have one of the division's premier individual talents in junior Muji Vader. Her force was unstoppable to the tune of 24.5 points per game and a perfect 20-0 regular season. Minuteman's opponent rating is the lowest of the top 13 seeds in Div. 5. They're a significant unknown because of their weak schedule. But Vader's talent is obvious and she could lead the Revolution on a magical run.
