It’s officially MIAA state tournament season. That means it’s time for predictions.
What fun are brackets without filling them out and potentially making a fool of yourself, anyway?
Last year, in our first season covering MIAA basketball, I didn’t do horribly. I actually picked the entire Division 1 Final Four correctly, and I nailed the Division 2 final matchup. But I ultimately only got one champion right – Pioneer Valley in Division 5. I need to shoot better than 20 percent this year.
With several legitimate contenders in each division in addition to some potentially ridiculous matchups, picking the 2026 tournaments was excruciatingly difficult. But I’m pretty confident that I have at least multiple champions, and I feel good about some upsets and darkhorse runs. I took a crack at every game in every division, with some analysis mixed in. Most importantly, here’s your bulletin board material.
BOYS MIAA BRACKETS:Â Division 1 | Division 2 | Division 3 | Division 4 | Division 5
Division 1
Final 4: No. 1 Central Catholic, No. 2 Andover, No. 6 Bridgewater-Raynham, No. 21 Newton North
Championship: No. 1 Central Catholic def. No. 2 Andover
Analysis: There are a ton of fun matchups and potentially exciting games in this bracket. We could get a Commonwealth Motors Christmas Classic rematch in the Elite Eight between Central and Beverly. There are a pair of conference matchups in the Round of 32 – Lexington vs. Winchester out of the Middlesex League and Catholic Memorial vs. St. John’s out of the Catholic Conference. Attleboro, despite a 20-2 record, fell to the No. 7 seed due to a weak strength of schedule and that could set up an insane matchup at Andover for a spot in the Final Four.
The bottom of this bracket, in my opinion, is wide open with possibilities. No. 3 Needham and No. 4 BC High are strong, but I don't think they're unbeatable. My boldest pick this year is undoubtedly No. 21 Newton North advancing to the Final Four. With a ton of experience back from last year’s run to the state championship, I think the Tigers are much better than that seed. They own a double-digit win over BC High last week and nearly took down Andover on Feb. 18. Their road is tough, but not impossible. Why not?
Ultimately, I didn’t overthink the championship. Central Catholic and Andover have been the top two teams in my MIAA Top 10 for nearly two months, and I think we’re getting Round 3 in the final. The Raiders were my pick before the season started and I’m not changing that now. Javi Lopez and Co. are deep and experienced on this stage, and this is their time.
The bracket:
[pdf-embedder url="https://basketballjournal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/MIAA-D1.pdf"]
Division 2
Final 4: No. 1 St. Mary’s, No. 3 Masconomet, No. 5 Mansfield, No. 7 Oliver Ames
Championship: No. 3 Masconomet def. No. 5 Mansfield
Analysis: There are a few double-digit seeds in this division, like No. 10 Archbishop Williams and No. 12 Holland School of Technology, that could crash the party here. But this bracket is top-heavy, and man, we could get some epic Elite Eight games. No. 1 St. Mary’s vs. No. 9 Newburyport, No. 4 Plymouth South vs. No. 5 Mansfield, No. 3 Masconomet vs. No. 6 Burlington and No. 2 Pope Francis vs. No. 7 Oliver Ames? Sign me up for all of those.
Oliver Ames slipped in the final week with two losses to end the season and fell to the 7 seed, but the Tigers are battle-tested with experience from last season’s Final Four run, so I’m confident they can head out west to take down Pope Francis. St. Mary’s has been No. 1 in D2 by a big margin all winter – and it was really hard to pick against them – but Mansfield is one of the hottest teams in the state, winners of 14 of its last 15 with victories over Bridgewater-Raynham and Bishop Feehan. I’ll take my chances with the experienced Hornets on a neutral site.
The pick here is Masconomet, a team that has tested themselves with a really hard schedule and nearly knocked off Central Catholic at the Board 27 Comcast Tournament. Led by Jimmy Farrell, Jamason Vella and Thomas Denton, among others, they have weapons, experience from last season’s Final Four run and confidence. The Chieftains also have the best defense in D2, and I think that will carry all the way to Lowell.
The bracket:
[pdf-embedder url="https://basketballjournal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/MIAA-D2.pdf"]
Division 3
Final 4: No. 1 Hanover, No. 2 Salem, No. 3 Tewksbury, No. 4 Swampscott
Championship: No. 2 Salem def. No. 4 Swampscott
Analysis: There are a whopping 48 teams in this playoff bracket, but it was hard not to pick chalk for the Final Four. Still, there were some temptations. I nearly pulled the trigger on No. 8 Medfield, led by senior star Thomas Behrmann, taking down No. 1 Hanover, but the Hawks, with just one loss – a road defeat at Plymouth South – look too good to deny a Final Four bid. I think No. 6 Lynn Classical will give No. 3 Tewksbury a scare, but the Jonny Sullivan-led Redmen have shown their mettle against the best of the Merrimack Valley Conference.
But ultimately, I’m feeling a North Shore battle for the state crown. Swampscott, led by senior Connor Chiarello and sophomore breakout star Teddy O’Neill, are rolling with five consecutive wins entering the tournament, including a statement victory over Salem two weeks ago. But the Witches have emerged as one of the best teams in the state, led by junior star Elian Rodriguez and a balanced attack that has no weaknesses on each side of the floor. I think they’re the safest pick.
The bracket:
[pdf-embedder url="https://basketballjournal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/MIAA-D3.pdf"]
Division 4
Final 4: No. 1 Wareham, No. 2 Millbury, No. 3 Georgetown, No. 4 West Bridgewater
Championship: No. 2 Millbury def. No. 1 Wareham
Analysis: There are some intriguing teams that could shake up this title race. No. 6 Blue Hills (19-1) boasts a win over No. 4 West Bridgewater, who are also its only loss. No. 10 Manchester Essex has a junior star in Alex St. Marie who can take over games, No. 20 Monument Mountain returned a few players that were part of last year’s runner-up team. But I think this division is a three-horse race between No. 1 Wareham, No. 2 Millbury and No. 3 Georgetown.
Wareham has maintained its place atop the power rankings all winter, and the Vikings have turned heads with wins over Brockton and Bishop Feehan. They’re the clear-cut favorite, and defending champion Georgetown will certainly be back in the mix. But Millbury is motivated for redemption after an early exit last season. The Woolies – led by senior captain Jimmer Donnelly and junior star Jayden Delaleu – returned their entire starting five, and they boast chemistry, experience and poise in tight moments.
The bracket:
[pdf-embedder url="https://basketballjournal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/brackets-winter-2026-boys-basketball-division-4.pdf"]
Division 5
Final 4: No. 1 Drury, No. 2 Hopedale, No. 4 David Prouty, No. 6 Holbrook
Championship: No. 1 Drury def. No. 2 Hopedale
Analysis: Holbrook, led by 2,000-point scorer Allen Brown Jr., are a clear threat, but this division seems to be destined to come down to the top two seeds, Drury and Hopedale, who each made last season’s Final Four. Drury, led by junior star Jorge Bond, has more experience in its pocket. I’ll take the Blue Devils to bring home their first boys state championship.
The bracket:
[pdf-embedder url="https://basketballjournal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/brackets-winter-2026-boys-basketball-division-5.pdf"]
