Saturday's NEPSAC semifinals trim the margin for error even tighter among our top remaining schools.
It also makes predicting the matchups that much more challenging.
As I look at the eight games in Class AAA through B, I would consider at least four true toss-ups and almost every one winnable for both teams. In the two days since the quarterfinals, I've flip-flopped my picks multiple times.
After some long, hard puzzling out, here are my predictions for who we'll see at Loomis Chaffee on Super Sunday.
PLAYOFF SCHEDULES:Â Class AAAÂ |Â Class AAÂ |Â Class AÂ |Â Class B, C, D
Class AAA
No. 1 Nobles vs. No. 5 New Hampton
Nobles rolled past New Hampton in both head-to-head regular season games, winning 66-42 and 79-62.
There are a few reasons to believe this might be closer. First, Nobles has had time off with its quarterfinal bye, and extended breaks affect teams in different ways. The Bulldogs also haven't played a particularly tough schedule over the last month, while New Hampton has fought against several of its Class AAA foes. The Huskies built multiple leads in their quarterfinal win over Hoosac, and even when Hoosac clawed back to take a late lead, they out-executed them in crunch time.
All that said, Nobles is the clear pick. The Bulldogs have scarcely shown a weakness all season. With Christina Pham (South Boston, Mass.) the focus of the perimeter defense and Jasmyn Cooper (North Easton, Mass.) likely being guarded by New Hampton's Serenity Lancaster (New London, Conn.), this leaves a statement opportunity for Nobles senior wing Ashley Dinges (Haverhill, Mass.). I would not be surprised to see a massive double-double effort from the Providence commit.
Prediction: Nobles 65, New Hampton 53
QUARTERFINAL TAKEAWAYS:Â 12 thoughts from the first day of NEPSAC playoff action
No. 2 Tabor vs. No. 3 Tilton
I have dreaded picking this game since the brackets came out. These are interchangeably the second and third-best teams in NEPSAC, and it's a shame one won't make it to Super Sunday.
Tabor and Tilton split their regular season series, each winning at home. Tilton has been the better team in the second half of the season, leaning on an elite defense to bog down opponents and find just enough offense to win close games. Tabor won its quarterfinal more handily, beating St. Andrew's 70-42 and maintaining the balance and depth that has powered the Seawolves all winter. Each team's biggest question mark looms extra large. Can Tabor overcome being slowed down by opposing defenses? Can Tilton score consistently and keep up with a loaded offense?
There's no wrong answer. I'm giving Tabor the home-court edge; the Seawolves have lost once at Stone Gym all season. Outside of the Big Three, their guard play from Molly Corcoran (Medford, Mass.), Callie Cosgrove (West Hartford, Conn.), Tess Adams (Mattapoisett, Mass.) and Lily Davis (Waterford, Conn.) on both ends will be critical. Brooke Golden (Chester, N.H.) is my X-factor for Tilton. If she can stay out of foul trouble and protect the rim, that'll determine the ceiling of Tilton's defense in this matchup. Maddie McCaffery (Merrimack, N.H.) can also swing this result if she's locked in as a shooter and attacking point guard. Regardless of your pick, this is one of the must-watch NEPSAC games of the season.
Prediction: Tabor 60, Tilton 58
Class AA
No. 1 Northfield Mount Hermon vs. No. 5 Darrow
Northfield Mount Hermon prevailed head-to-head in two absolute rock fights (48-44 and 45-36) during the regular season. I expect that trend to continue.
These teams mirror each other in fun ways. Each has a point guard with a tight handle and mid-range scoring touch (Olivia Fleming for NMH, Amanda Smith for Darrow). They each run a lot of offense through Swiss-Army-knife off-guards (Breena Hannon for NMH, Jill Dingler for Darrow). They have size in the frontcourt and shooting specialists who can catch fire and swing a game. And when all else fails, they each have unique scorers who can create something out of nothing (Zariah Ottley for NMH, Jayla Hughley for Darrow).
This matchup could come down to easy buckets in transition, and that's where I side with NMH. Fleming and standout postgrad forward Grace Minihane know how to push tempo and connect with each other on fast breaks. However, I'll refer to the "it's hard to beat a team three times" cliché. Darrow is playing its best basketball right now and could absolutely pull off the upset.
Prediction: Northfield Mount Hermon 50, Darrow 45
No. 2 Worcester Academy vs. No. 3 Wilbraham and Monson
These teams opened the entire NEPSAC girls season back on Nov. 20, with the Titans earning a 63-49 victory.
A lot has changed since. The Hilltoppers haven't lost another Class AA game, and under first-year head coach Dan Sullivan, they flew through the 2025 portion of the winter. Senior guard Elyse MacDonough (South Burlington, Vt.) is going ballistic behind the arc, and following her are a bunch of high-motor guards and wings who share the ball and confidently let shots fly. Meanwhile, Wilbraham and Monson has been up and down, but just played one of its best games of the season in the 75-56 quarterfinal win against Austin Prep.
The frontcourt battle will be pivotal. Ella Getz (Wayland, Mass.) is a great two-way player for Worcester Academy, but she and fellow 6-foot-1 forward Makena Bailey (Lancaster, Mass.) will have to spearhead containing star WMA center Caterina Ravosa (East Longmeadow, Mass.), who just dropped 28 against Austin Prep. The Hilltoppers are going to put up points behind their volume of 3s and diversity of weapons. Can the Titans match the production? They have the talent, and Ravosa could dominate this game, but it'll take a full 32 minutes of offensive focus to beat one of NEPSAC's hottest teams.
Prediction: Worcester Academy 68, Wilbraham and Monson 60
Class A
No. 1 Loomis Chaffee vs. No. 4 Hotchkiss
Hotchkiss has a second consecutive upset opportunity in this round after losing, 75-51, to Loomis Chaffee in last year's semifinals.
Their lone head-to-head this winter was a 59-35 Loomis win on Feb. 26. It's hard to imagine a different result. Hotchkiss has two bona fide NEPSAC stars in point guard Kaila Richards — who racked up 32 points in the quarterfinals — and center Morgan Jenkins (Higganum, Conn.). But the Pelicans match up extremely well. They have big, mobile perimeter defenders like Aniyah Neal, Catherine Chadwell (Longmeadow, Mass.) and Leah McKenzie (Farmington, Conn.). The interior duo of Alicia Mitchell (Springfield, Mass.) and Liv Westfort (Manchester, Conn.) should contain Jenkins. It's a tall task for anyone to beat Loomis' teamwide defensive emphasis.
Prediction: Loomis Chaffee 60, Hotchkiss 45
No. 2 Sacred Heart vs. No. 3 Kent
In this Class A matchup, it's the higher seed out for revenge after third-seeded Kent also beat second-seeded Sacred Heart in last year's semifinals, 54-41.
Kent has the head-to-head victory this year too: 52-48 on Jan. 17. They did it at Sacred Heart, so Kent has proven it can win in this gym. Both sides are defined by their guard talent; I'll consider that a wash. Agar Malek (Standish, Maine) is a smaller post player on Kent at 5-foot-11, but if she can be assertive scoring inside, that could make a huge difference. Likewise, Sacred Heart could win if forward Jadamarie Henry, who posted a career-high 23 points last Friday against St. Luke's, logs another big game. This will be a defensive-oriented affair.
Prediction: Kent 48, Sacred Heart 43
Class B
No. 5 St. Luke's vs. No. 8 St. George's
Last year, St. Luke's stumbled as the No. 5 seed and never got a chance to face then-top-seed St. George's in the semifinals. The Storm will get their shot this time.
The matchup pits Cam Nelson (Greenwich, Conn.), fresh off a 30-point barrage in St. Luke's quarterfinal win over Lawrence Academy, against a St. George's defense that has significantly improved since these foes last met: a 65-58 Storm win on Dec. 21. This will likely be a lower-scoring contest and another true toss-up game.
Even though St. George's has the perimeter defenders to make Nelson's life difficult, the Storm have some other underrated pieces around their superstar. I look at Mercyhurst commit Emma Sollenne (Greenwich, Conn.) as a potential swing player if she can heat up behind the arc. Same goes for wing Grace Kearney (Monroe, Conn.), who is also big and versatile enough to defend against St. George's size, even at 5-foot-11. Olivia White needs to play aggressive but under control, and I believe she's capable of stepping up in this moment.
I went back and forth on predicting this one — St. George's could easily make me learn my lesson twice. For the Dragons to win, they'll need Gianna Nichols (Fiskdale, Mass.) to lead a lockdown perimeter defense, and for forwards Molly Donovan (Duxbury, Mass.) and Olivia VanPatten (Middletown, R.I.) to win interior battles.
Prediction: St. Luke's 55, St. George's 51
No. 2 Berkshire vs. No. 3 Rivers
Unlike the latter semifinalists, Rivers and Berkshire are in unfamiliar recent territory, with Rivers new to Class B and Berkshire rebounding from last season's missed playoffs.
After watching Grace O'Sullivan (Acton, Mass.) and Natalia Hall-Rosa (Randolph, Mass.) carve up Greens Farms in the second half of their quarterfinal victory, I have a hard time picking against the senior stars. Classmate Chase Anderson (Concord, Mass.) asserted herself as a rebounder and defender, and she'll need to do it again against Berkshire's 6-4 center, Pearl Dickson.
I'll be interested to see how Rivers defends Chloe Egan (Cotuit, Mass.) following her 23-point performance against Beaver. Egan is a tough cover because of her 5-foot-11 size and smooth game as a lead guard. But experience favors the Red Wings.
Prediction: Rivers 56, Berkshire 49
